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October 16, 2025

Bitcoin Near $111K as Bearish Momentum Builds; PancakeSwap Leads Altcoin Weakness

Market snapshot: crypto selling pressure amid mixed macro signals

Bitcoin (BTC) staged an intraday recovery to just above $111,000 after dipping to $110,000, but momentum indicators on the daily chart are deteriorating. The MACD histogram is rising on the bearish side and the RSI sits near ~41, signalling increased downside bias. At the same time a second wave of supply dumps has pushed Aster (ASTER), PancakeSwap (CAKE) and Immutable (IMX) to the weakest positions in the last 24 hours; this follows a broader crypto liquidation wave seen in recent scans.

Why this matters

The current setup matters because BTC’s position relative to medium- and long-term EMAs will determine altcoin risk appetite. If renewed selling pushes Bitcoin below the short-term support cluster and the 200-day EMA, that could trigger stop runs across highly leveraged alt positions. Conversely, any extension of the intraday recovery toward the 100-day EMA would relieve some altcoin pressure; see the weekly 50 EMA break analysis for related EMA-driven downside scenarios.

Bitcoin technicals — levels to watch

Key technical levels

  • Resistance: 100-day EMA near $113,416 (near-term test if bulls extend the bounce).
  • Support: 200-day EMA near $108,093 — a breach would increase downside risk.
  • Immediate downside trigger: $109,561 — renewed selling through this level could target the 200-day EMA and amplify market-wide weakness.

Indicator readout

Daily MACD: rising bearish histogram; 14–day RSI: ~41. The readings suggest momentum has turned against BTC despite the recent bounce. Traders should treat rallies cautiously until BTC reclaims the 100-day EMA with conviction.

Altcoin stress: PancakeSwap (CAKE), Aster (ASTER) and Immutable (IMX)

Altcoins are bearing the brunt of the supply wave. Important technical markers from the latest scan:

  • CAKE: trading around the 50-day EMA (~$2.971) with immediate resistance at $3.165 and downside targets at the 100/200-day EMAs ($2.779 / $2.591) if it loses the 50-day.
  • ASTER: around $1.30 with support zones at $1.15 and $1.00; a break below $1.15 risks a slide to $1.00 and the S1 pivot near $0.98.
  • IMX: trading above $0.50 with immediate support at $0.457 and resistance at the 100-day EMA (~$0.616); watch for a bearish EMA cross that would increase downside probability.

Risks and contagion

Continued supply dumps and worsening momentum indicators (MACD/RSI) can increase volatility and contagion across altcoins. Because many alt positions are levered, a BTC breakdown below key EMAs could force rapid deleveraging and sharper price moves. Recent episodes of ETH long liquidations illustrate how liquidation events can amplify altcoin drawdowns.

Trade ideas and scenario planning

Bearish scenarios

  • If BTC falls through $109,561 and tests the 200-day EMA (~$108,093), expect elevated altcoin liquidation risk; consider reducing directional exposure or using tight stops.
  • For CAKE and IMX, a confirmed loss of their 50/100-day EMAs increases the probability of moves to the next EMA support bands—position sizing and stop discipline are essential.

Bullish scenarios

  • If BTC extends the intraday recovery and reclaims the 100-day EMA (~$113,416), altcoins could stabilise and attempt mean reversion; ASTER clearing $1.50 could target the R1 pivot near $2.10, while CAKE moving above $3.165 may extend to $3.476.
  • IMX rallying above its 100-day EMA (~$0.616) would also reduce immediate selling pressure.

Execution: managing risk and automation

Given the speed at which crypto markets can repriced during supply events, many traders combine manual oversight with automated execution to manage emotion and slippage. Automated trading and AI-assisted signals can enforce discipline, handle intraday rebalances, and manage stop orders across exchanges.

If you trade Bitcoin or altcoins on major exchanges, consider strategies that include dynamic position sizing and predefined stop rules. PlayOnBit provides tools for traders looking to implement automated risk controls and systematic strategies — for example, the bitcoin trading bot and exchange-specific solutions such as the Binance trading bot to execute across liquidity pools more reliably.

Macro and cross-asset context

Macro risks (US political uncertainty, DXY volatility, and US–China tensions) are feeding into crypto price action by shifting risk appetite. A weakening US Dollar could be supportive for risk assets, but the current altcoin supply dynamic is the dominant near-term driver. Traders who trade both crypto and FX may find benefits in tools that span markets — including for forex trading — and can implement hedging across asset classes.

Conclusion and next steps

Short-term market structure for BTC is tilted bearish despite the recent bounce; the 100-day EMA (~$113,416) and the 200-day EMA (~$108,093) are the immediate reference points. PancakeSwap, Aster and Immutable are vulnerable if Bitcoin fails to sustain gains — watch key EMA levels and support zones closely. Use disciplined risk management and consider automated trading solutions to execute and manage positions during volatile supply events.

If you want to test systematic approaches, explore PlayOnBit to deploy automated trading strategies and AI-driven order management. Try the bitcoin trading bot and other exchange-integrated tools to backtest setups and trial execution.