ETH Breaks Below $3,000 Amid Massive Long Liquidations; EUR/USD Falls Under 1.1700
Market snapshot: Crypto pain and FX pressure
Markets moved sharply overnight as ETH reversed after breaching an ascending triangle and key support, and EUR/USD fell below 1.1700 following a risk-on swing tied to geopolitical headlines and a firmer dollar. Traders should weigh immediate technical levels, evolving funding dynamics in crypto, and USD-driven FX risks when sizing positions or configuring automated strategies.
ETH: Technical breakdown, funding dynamics and trade ideas
What happened
ETH fell roughly 3.8% on the session and is down about 14% on the week after breaking the ascending triangle and dropping through the $3,057 area. Price is now testing the near-term support zone around $2,880, with lower supports near $2,627 and $2,400. Open interest rose from ~12.64M to 13.30M ETH while funding flipped negative, indicating new capital is flowing into short positions. Over the past three days long liquidations exceeded $610M — the largest since Nov. 21 — and US spot ETH ETFs recorded roughly $230M in net outflows.
Why it matters
Rising open interest together with negative funding and concentrated long liquidations raises the probability of amplified moves. That setup increases both downside momentum risk and the potential for a squeeze if buyers return. For traders using automated trading or algorithmic systems, these structural metrics (OI, funding, ETF flows) are critical signals to include in models and risk filters.
Key levels and short-term scenarios
- Immediate support: $2,880 (current test).
- Secondary support: $2,627 (next structural level).
- Strong downside target if $2,627 breaks: $2,400.
- Short-term resistance / reversal levels: $3,057 (triangle neckline), then the $3,300–$3,400 area if momentum flips.
Trading plan
- Tactical short: consider short exposure on a confirmed break & close below $2,880 with tight risk control (stop above $3,057 or a volatility-based ATR stop).
- Mean-reversion / dip-buy: look for oversold confirmations (RSI/stoch) and reduced OI or waning selling pressure before initiating counter-trend longs — target small, defined positions given the risk of further deleveraging.
- Manage leverage carefully due to negative funding and high OI; use position sizing rules and hard stop levels.
Tools and automation
Automated trading can help execute multi-leg risk-managed strategies fast in this environment. Traders using execution bots on major venues can route limit and stop orders efficiently; for crypto-focused automation consider the Binance Trading Bot or the BitMEX Trading Bot depending on venue and leverage needs. For short-squeeze and liquidation-aware strategies, incorporate funding rate and open interest filters into your ruleset.
EUR/USD: Dollar strength, political headlines and tactical setups
What happened
EUR/USD slipped over 0.30% from 1.1743 to below 1.1700 after headlines that US President Trump would not impose planned tariffs on eight European countries related to Greenland/Arctic. US equities were firmer, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) was up roughly 0.20% near 98.75 as risk flows and macro momentum favored the dollar. The RSI on EUR/USD shifted into bearish territory on short-term charts.
Key risks and levels
- Immediate chart action: break and hold below 1.1700 opens a path toward lower support; reclaiming 1.1700 would keep the pair range-bound with resistance near 1.1743/1.1769.
- Risks: sustained US dollar strength (stronger US data or further DXY gains) could push EUR/USD further down. Conversely, renewed political headlines or tariff reversals could quickly boost FX volatility and invalidate the short bias.
Trade ideas
- Tactical short: consider short exposure while EUR/USD remains below 1.1700 with clearly defined stops above 1.1743/1.1769.
- Range-traders: if EUR/USD reclaims 1.1700, look for mean-reversion entries targeting the 1.1743–1.1769 resistance band.
- Use smaller sizes on directional FX trades and consider using automated execution to scale in/out at planned levels — for example, the Forex Trading Bot can implement scaled entry and trailing stop rules.
Risk management and position sizing
Both the ETH and EUR/USD setups highlight the importance of disciplined risk management. Use defined stop-losses, cap leverage relative to account equity, and monitor real-time indicators (OI, funding, broad risk sentiment). Automated trading systems and execution bots can enforce these guardrails consistently; consider integrating a decision-layer bot to pause or reduce risk when funding or volatility spikes.
Conclusion and next steps
Short-term momentum favors ETH downside toward $2,627–$2,400 if $2,880 breaks, while EUR/USD remains vulnerable under 1.1700 amid a firmer dollar. Traders should combine technical levels with structural metrics (open interest, funding, ETF flows) and maintain strict risk controls.
For traders looking to automate discipline and execute tactically across crypto and FX, consider exploring PlayOnBit's automation tools like the Trade Assistant Bot and venue-specific bots for spot and derivatives. These tools can help implement strategies with consistent position sizing, stop management and monitoring for funding / OI signals relevant to crypto trading, forex trading and automated trading workflows.
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