Back
November 17, 2025

Bitcoin Breaks Weekly 50 EMA as USD Rebound Adds Downside Pressure

Overview

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) recorded the first major weekly-level weakness since earlier 2024–2025 supports broke, slipping below the weekly 50 EMA and testing a high-volume node near $92,900–$95,200. At the same time, the US dollar recovered versus most major currencies after markets trimmed expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts, a backdrop that has generally pressured risk assets including crypto. This follows recent reads where Bitcoin loses momentum near the $90k area.

Key market drivers

Two forces are colliding this week: a technical deterioration in Bitcoin’s multi-timeframe structure and shifting US rate expectations. Several Fed speakers have signalled growing support for skipping a near-term rate cut, and FOMC minutes (Oct 28–29) are expected to show similar language. Labour indicators add data risk: ADP showed -32k while alternative payroll data (Revelio) printed +33k, creating uncertainty ahead of the official NFP consensus at roughly 50k. A stronger USD resulting from lower rate-cut odds raises the chance of further downside pressure on BTC; see prior macro reads on USD strength from ISM for context.

Technical picture — BTCUSD

Technical observations from the latest reads:

  • Breakdown below the weekly 50 EMA — first notable weekly-level weakness after the earlier supports failed.
  • Immediate support cluster / high-volume node and daily order block: $92,900–$95,200.
  • Next significant downside zone: $84,000–$85,500 (liquidity gap and prior demand area).
  • Resistance to regain bullish trend: reclaim and weekly close above $107,482 and the weekly 50 EMA.
  • Momentum: daily and weekly RSI are depressed but have not yet fallen below 30, leaving room for both continued weakness or a tactical bounce.

Macro flow and liquidity

Spot ETF flows and longer-term holder behaviour are amplifying the price action. BTC spot ETFs experienced net outflows of about $1.11B last week (third consecutive week), while ETH ETFs also saw substantial net outflows. Long-term holders have been accelerating sales, and retail flows remain muted — a mix that increases vulnerability to extended downside if liquidity deteriorates further.

Risks to monitor

  • Failure to hold $92,900 could accelerate selling toward the $84k–$85.5k zone.
  • Inability to reclaim the weekly 50 EMA / close above $107,482 would confirm sustained bearish momentum.
  • A hawkish surprise in FOMC minutes or stronger-than-expected US employment prints could boost the USD and add pressure to crypto markets.
  • Worsening momentum indicators (RSI < 30) would increase the probability of sharp downside moves.

Opportunities and trade ideas

  • Tactical buyers: look for an accumulation or mean-reversion setup in the $92.9k–$95.2k high-volume node with tight risk management; this is a probable short-term support for scalps and range trades.
  • Short continuation: failure to hold $92.9k opens a lower-probability but higher-reward extension toward $84k–$85.5k — consider spacing entries and using momentum confirmation.
  • Trend reversal trigger: a decisive reclaim and weekly close above $107,482 and the weekly 50 EMA would signal a return to a bullish medium-term regime and could be used as a breakout entry.
  • Volatility plays: with macro prints (FOMC minutes, NFP) looming, momentum or mean-reversion automated strategies can exploit intraday swings — but expect rapid repricing as new information hits markets.

Practical execution and risk management

Position sizing is critical in the current environment. Given ETF outflows and dealer/holder selling, liquidity can evaporate quickly during sharp moves. Use defined stops and account for slippage, especially on large-size entries. For traders active across asset classes, hedging large directional exposure via correlated instruments (e.g., short BTC vs. long USD or short XAUUSD if gold is diverging) can reduce tail risk.

How automation can help

Market structure is fast-moving and multi-dimensional: crypto flows, forex rates, macro releases, and technical levels matter all at once. Automated trading tools let traders monitor multiple symbols, execute pre-defined entry/exit rules, and manage stops dynamically during volatile windows. For example, a momentum or mean-reversion strategy can be deployed to capture tactical bounces at the $92.9k–$95.2k node while limiting downside if BTC breaches the next support band. Tools like the Bitcoin Trading Bot can automate these ideas.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s break below the weekly 50 EMA and the presence of net ETF outflows have created a higher-risk setup where a confirmed failure of $92,900 would point toward a deeper correction near $84k–$85.5k. Conversely, a reclaim above $107,482 would be required to reassert bullish control. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility around FOMC minutes and US labour releases and use robust risk management.

If you trade crypto or use cross-asset signals influenced by forex flows, consider combining discretionary analysis with automated workflows. The Trade Assistant Bot and other tools on PlayOnBit can help execute tactical entries and manage risk during rapid moves.

Try an AI trading bot on PlayOnBit to test tactical strategies and automated risk management in live market conditions.