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October 23, 2025

USD/CAD Slides Below 1.4000 as Oil Rises; Ethereum Reels After 160k ETH Wallet Move

Quick take

USD/CAD slipped below the 1.4000 mark on Thursday as oil climbed to a near two‑week high following new U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies, supporting the Canadian dollar ahead of Canada Retail Sales. At the same time, Ethereum experienced sharp volatility after the Ethereum Foundation moved 160,000 ETH to a new multisig wallet; initial sell-side interpretations, large realized profits reported by Santiment, and roughly $169M in futures liquidations amplified downside pressure.

Macro drivers and market context

Fed funds futures imply roughly a 97% probability of a 25bp Fed cut in October, which keeps downward pressure on the USD in broad risk-sensitive environments. For Canada, consensus forecasts expected Retail Sales to show +1.0% MoM (Aug) and ex‑autos +1.2%—data that could further strengthen CAD if confirmed. Meanwhile, oil's rally after U.S. sanctions has been a direct bid for the Canadian dollar, given Canada’s energy exports.

Why this matters for traders

Short-term positioning is sensitive: softer U.S. rate expectations and higher oil typically weigh on USD/CAD, while opportunistic crypto traders are monitoring on‑chain signals and leverage unwinds around ETH. Both forex trading and crypto trading desks should adjust risk and liquidity plans given these cross-market linkages.

USD/CAD technical and trade implications

Drivers

Primary catalysts for the move under 1.4000 are rising WTI prices—supported by sanctions on Russian oil firms—and the market pricing of imminent Fed easing. See a recent USDCAD technical update for precedent on support and resistance behavior. Canada’s upcoming Retail Sales print is a key event: a hotter-than-expected release would likely push USD/CAD lower; a miss or weaker oil would reverse the move.

Key technical levels

Support: 1.3950 — 1.3900 (near-term demand zone). Resistance: 1.4050 — 1.4100. A decisive break below 1.3900 would open the way to 1.3800, while a failed retail-sales print or stronger USD could quickly re-test 1.4100.

Trading considerations

Traders should size positions with current macro volatility in mind. Use stops beyond structural levels rather than intraday noise; consider scaling into directionally biased positions if Retail Sales confirm strength. Institutional and retail forex traders using automated strategies can route signals to execution systems—if you run systematic strategies, now is a time to check correlation exposures to oil and Fed-rate signals. For those who prefer automated execution across FX pairs, PlayOnBit offers a range of solutions including a Forex Trading Bot and a centralized Trade Assistant Bot for trade management.

Ethereum: on‑chain migration, liquidations and technical risk

What happened

The Ethereum Foundation moved about 160,000 ETH (~$650M) into a new multisig wallet. Markets initially interpreted the transfer as potential selling; the Foundation clarified the move was a migration. Nonetheless, Santiment reported more than $700M in realized profits and a spike in Age Consumed, signaling significant movement of older coins. Combined with roughly $169M in 24‑hour futures liquidations (≈$119M long liquidations), see coverage of ETH long liquidations, ETH was rejected near $4,100, briefly fell below $3,800 and bounced near the 200‑day EMA.

Risks

Perceived selling by a major foundation can trigger cascades of profit-taking and further liquidations. Technically, a breakdown below the 200‑day EMA and the $3,470 level would increase the probability of a decline toward $2,850. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are tilted toward the bears in the short term.

Opportunities

If the Foundation’s clarification calms sentiment and buyers defend the 200‑day EMA, ETH could retrace toward $4,100 and potentially attempt to flip the 50‑day EMA. Heavy long liquidations also create the chance for short-covering rallies—short‑term traders can look for disciplined entries around key EMAs with tight risk controls. For derivatives traders, execution tools like the BitMEX Trading Bot or spot/derivatives strategies via the Binance Trading Bot can automate order management and risk‑limit enforcement during volatile windows.

Risk management and positioning

Across both markets, volatility is elevated and correlation dynamics matter. Suggested rules of thumb:

  • Keep position sizes small relative to account equity ahead of Canada Retail Sales and any major on‑chain announcements.
  • Use stops based on technical levels (e.g., beyond the 200‑day EMA for ETH, beyond 1.4100 for USD/CAD) rather than fixed percentage stops that ignore market structure.
  • Consider hedging directional FX exposure with options if you expect headline risk but want to maintain exposure.
  • Review margin and liquidation thresholds on leveraged crypto positions—recent $169M futures liquidations underscore how quickly leveraged books can unwind.

Conclusion and practical next steps

Short‑term, USD/CAD looks biased lower given rising oil and priced‑in Fed easing, but the Canada Retail Sales print is the decisive near‑term catalyst. Ethereum faces elevated downside risk after large transfers, heavy realized profits and significant futures liquidations; defending the 200‑day EMA is critical for any meaningful recovery. Retail traders and investors should combine macro awareness, technical levels, and strict risk management when trading these moves.

If you want to test automated approaches to manage entries, exits and risk across forex and crypto markets, consider trying an AI trading bot through PlayOnBit. Automated trading and AI-driven signals can help execute faster during volatile windows while enforcing risk rules. Explore tools like the Trade Assistant Bot and the Forex Trading Bot.