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October 21, 2025

Gold Tests Double-Top Neckline as Bitcoin Slides Below $108k Ahead of Fed Meeting

Market snapshot: technical stress for gold, risk-off in crypto

Two of the most-watched markets — XAU/USD (gold) and BTC/USD (Bitcoin) — are showing divergent technical and flow dynamics as markets price in Federal Reserve policy moves. A Reuters poll shows overwhelming economist expectations for a 25bp Fed funds rate cut at the Oct. 29 meeting, a development that could weaken the US dollar and support risk assets and precious metals. Fed-cut odds boost. At the same time, short-term technicals and institutional flows are creating clear tradeable scenarios for both instruments.

Gold (XAU/USD): double-top pattern meets macro tailwinds

Technically, gold has the look of a potential double top around $4,380 with price trading near $4,260 and approaching the Oct. 17 low near $4,190 — the neckline that matters. A confirmed break and daily close below $4,190 would validate the double-top and increase the likelihood of an accelerated decline. Immediate resistance sits in the $4,380–$4,400 area, with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the Oct. 14–16 rally near $4,455 acting as an upside target if momentum reverses.

Macro context is mixed but supportive for bullion over a longer horizon: gold typically trades inversely to the USD and US Treasury yields, and central-bank accumulation (1,136 tonnes added in 2022 is a commonly cited benchmark) provides a structural demand backdrop. However, near-term price action is vulnerable to strengthening USD or rising U.S. yields — both of which could push XAU/USD lower.

Practical setups for gold

  • Short bias: a clear break and close below the $4,190 neckline opens short-entry opportunities with an eye on rapid downside extension; use disciplined position sizing and time-based exits for volatility around major levels.
  • Long bias: rejection and a robust bounce off $4,190 would create a tactical long toward $4,380–$4,455, ideally confirmed by rising volumes and supportive yield moves.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): technical weakness, ETF outflows and macro risk

Bitcoin traded below $108,000 after a rejection at a previously broken ascending trendline. Daily momentum indicators are tilted bearish (RSI near ~40, bearish MACD), and immediate supports are noted at $106,453 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and the round-number $100,000 mark. Institutional flows are signaling weakening demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a $40.47M net outflow on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive day of outflows (ETF outflows pressure).

Compounding pressure on BTC are macro headlines such as the extended US government shutdown and renewed US–China trade-tension talk — developments that have pushed risk assets toward a cautious posture and tightened the correlation between crypto and equities in risk-off episodes.

Practical setups for Bitcoin

  • Defensive setup: maintain stops and consider reducing directional exposure while BTC remains below the broken trendline and the 50‑day EMA (~$113,818).
  • Bullish recovery: a daily close back above the trendline and the 50‑day EMA would signal a potential technical recovery and increase the chance of a short-covering rally toward $120k–$125k.
  • Bear case: sustained outflows and a macro-driven risk-off extension could push BTC toward $100,000; protective orders and position sizing are essential.

How upcoming Fed pricing shapes both markets

The Reuters poll showing 115 of 117 economists expecting a 25bp Fed cut on Oct. 29 is a key macro input. A confirmed cut would typically weaken the dollar and lower real yields — a bullish environment for gold and a supportive backdrop for risk assets including Bitcoin. Conversely, risks around policy error (cutting too early and stoking inflation or forcing later re-tightening) could produce volatility across FX, rates, commodities and crypto.

Risks, correlations and trade management

- USD and yields: USD strength or a rise in US Treasury yields remain the single biggest risk to both gold and crypto in the near term.
- Flows: continued ETF outflows for Bitcoin or diminishing physical demand for metals could exacerbate declines.
- Geopolitics and credit: renewed credit stress or geopolitical shocks (trade tensions, government shutdown impacts) can create rapid repricing and correlation breakdowns.

Execution tools and automation for retail traders

Given the fast-changing macro background and technical thresholds, many traders benefit from tools that monitor levels and execute with discipline. Automated trading systems and algorithmic signals can help enforce risk rules and react to intraday breaks or closes. For traders focusing on crypto trading and bitcoin specifically, solutions such as the Bitcoin Trading Bot or exchange-specific automation like the Binance Trading Bot can be used to implement systematic entries, stops and targets. For multi-asset traders tracking FX and precious metals, the Trade Assistant and forex trading bot offer configurable automated trading options.

Conclusion — what traders should watch now

Short-term, XAU/USD faces a decisive test at the $4,190 neckline: a break would favor downside momentum, while a clean rejection would open a tactical run toward $4,380–$4,455. Bitcoin’s near-term path hinges on $106,453 and the $100,000 level, with technical recovery only likely after a daily close above the trendline and the ~50‑day EMA. The broader macro backdrop — specifically Fed rate-cut expectations and US-dollar/yield moves — will be the swing factor for both markets.

If you trade crypto trading or forex trading and want to monitor these levels automatically or execute disciplined, rule-based entries and exits, consider using automated trading tools. PlayOnBit provides platform-level automation and strategy execution that can help retail traders respond to fast-moving developments across BTC and XAU. Try the AI trading bot on PlayOnBit today to test systematic approaches and stay ready for the next major move.