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November 10, 2025

EUR/USD Slides After US Funding Deal; Gold Gains on Fed Cut Odds

Market snapshot

Global markets reacted to a bipartisan Senate funding deal that largely removes near-term shutdown risk, while CME FedWatch shows roughly a 66% probability of a 25bp Fed cut in December. The immediate result: USD strength pressured EUR/USD back toward the 1.1550 area during Asian hours, while gold (XAU/USD) found support as rate-cut expectations lifted the appeal of non-yielding safe havens. This follows earlier episodes of euro weakness, including an episode when EUR/USD slides below 1.1800.

Key drivers

US funding deal and macro flow

Centrist Senate Democrats backed a short-term package that reopens government operations for many departments through Jan 30 and restores delayed transfers and back pay for federal employees. That reduced a major near-term risk premium and encouraged risk-taking and a firmer dollar against some majors.

Fed rate-cut pricing and data

CME FedWatch pricing (~66% chance of a 25bp cut in December) reflects softer US macro indicators — including large October job reductions reported by Challenger and a slump in University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 50.3. Softer growth expectations lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting XAU/USD even as a firmer dollar initially pressured currencies like the euro. A similar dynamic has supported both currencies and precious metals in past sessions, see EUR/USD strengthens as Fed cuts loom for more context.

ECB and BoE comments

ECB speakers (Villeroy de Galhau, Nagel, de Guindos) emphasized vigilance on inflation and keeping policy options open; the Bank of England recently left rates at 4.0% ahead of the UK Autumn Budget. Divergent central bank paths remain an important cross-check for euro and sterling moves.

EUR/USD technical and tactical outlook

Price context: EUR/USD traded near 1.1550 after a three-day slide. Key short-term levels to monitor:

Support

  • 1.1500: psychological and recent intraday support.
  • 1.1400: next structural support if USD momentum continues.

Resistance

  • 1.1600: small intraday resistance/congestion.
  • 1.1700: 50-day moving average area and a more meaningful cap on rallies.

Trading idea (short-term): a break and close below 1.1500 on increased USD flows or smooth implementation of the funding deal could open a measured move toward 1.1400. Alternatively, a failure to sustain USD gains or stronger-than-expected Eurozone data could trigger a bounce toward 1.1600–1.1700. Keep stops tight given event-driven volatility.

Gold (XAU/USD): why it’s holding up

With Fed cut odds rising and global growth indicators weakening, gold has a twofold bid: lower real yields and safe-haven allocation during macro uncertainty. Short-term levels to watch:

Support

  • $1,980–$1,995: near-term floor on dips.

Resistance

  • $2,050–$2,075: initial upside target; a decisive move above $2,075 would open a larger trend test.

Trading idea: traders can look to add on pullbacks toward the $1,980 area with tight risk control or trade breakouts above $2,050 for momentum setups. Monitor Treasury yields closely — any re-acceleration in yields or a reversal in Fed-cut expectations would increase downside risk for gold. See our analysis on drivers behind metal rallies: Gold near record highs.

Risk management and execution

Event-driven setups around funding implementation and upcoming US releases (consumer confidence, payrolls) can produce fast moves and whipsaw risk. Use clear stop-loss placement and size positions to a fixed percentage of account equity. Consider scaling in and out rather than full-size entries on headline-driven moves. Also monitor related reports such as the EUR/USD retreats after JOLTS analysis and the implications for USD flow.

For traders who want disciplined entry/exit management and continuous market monitoring, automated approaches can help enforce rules and manage intraday risk. Tools such as a Forex Trading Bot or a Trade Assistant Bot can execute pre-defined strategies across EUR/USD and XAU/USD with consistent risk parameters.

Practical checklist before trading

- Confirm funding-deal implementation details before committing to large directional trades.

- Watch US real yields and the CME FedWatch probabilities for shifts in policy expectations.

- Use layered entries and define max loss per trade.

- Backtest any automated or algorithmic rule set against recent volatile conditions.

Conclusion

The Senate funding deal has removed an important near-term tail risk, supporting dollar strength and pressuring EUR/USD toward the 1.15 area. At the same time, elevated Fed-cut odds and weaker US sentiment create a constructive backdrop for gold. Traders should stay flexible: a confirmed move in either direction will likely be driven by funding-implementation details, incoming US data and central bank messaging.

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