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November 12, 2025

GBP/USD Falls After UK Jobs Shock and Political Noise; Bitcoin Weakness Amplified by ETF Outflows

Market snapshot — sterling under pressure, Bitcoin shows supply-side stress

GBP/USD weakened following UK jobs data showing unemployment rising to 5% and a cooling in wage growth, pushing market-implied odds of a 25bp Bank of England cut in December toward ~90%. Political headlines questioning Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership compounded the move, and the pair traded down roughly 0.34% to ~1.3105 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) firmed on reports of a potential end to the US government shutdown, a sign the dollar strengthens. At the same time, Bitcoin has slipped from roughly $110,000 to $100,000 in the first two weeks of November amid nearly $2bn of spot ETF outflows and large on-chain transfers from long-dated wallets to exchanges.

Why GBP is vulnerable

Three drivers explain near-term GBP downside:

1) Macro: weaker labour market

Rising unemployment and easing wage growth reduce the BoE’s inflation risks and increase the likelihood of policy easing. With markets pricing a high probability of a December 25bp cut, yields on UK assets may fall and sterling often follows.

2) Politics: budget and leadership uncertainty

Reports circling party leadership and potential turmoil ahead of the Nov 26 fiscal budget add another layer of risk. Political uncertainty typically depresses the currency and can trigger sharp reversals if headlines worsen.

3) USD dynamics

If US fiscal news or incoming data revives the dollar (DXY ~99.6 seen recently), GBP/USD will face additional downward pressure. Conversely, sustained USD weakness would limit GBP losses.

Technical and tactical outlook for GBP/USD

Short-term technicals are biased lower, but there are clear levels to watch:

Key levels

  • Immediate support: ~1.3050–1.3100 (daily close below 1.3100 would confirm bearish momentum).
  • Short-term resistance/stop: 1.3150–1.3200 (a daily close above 1.3100 could stabilize price into a 1.3100–1.3150 range).

Trading idea: tactical short GBP/USD on rallies toward 1.3150 with tight risk controls, or consider long EUR/GBP given relative ECB hawkishness vs BoE easing expectations. Use position sizing and stop-loss levels aligned with event risk (UK budget, data releases).

Bitcoin — flows and on‑chain signals matter more than ever

Crypto markets are showing clear signs of supply pressure. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed negative throughout November, suggesting weak US institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2bn of outflows in the past two weeks, comparable to large outflows seen earlier in 2025. On-chain data shows approximately 28,900 BTC aged more than 65 months moved, and transfers from old wallets to Binance hit the highest level since July — a concerning mix that can increase exchange sell-side availability. Related on-chain signals and bearish momentum builds in other crypto markets mirror this weakness.

Risk factors for BTC

  • Sustained ETF outflows and negative Coinbase premium indicate limited domestic buying pressure in the US.
  • Large transfers by long-term holders and increased exchange balances raise the likelihood of further price declines if sellers rotate.
  • Macro developments (e.g., USD strength on US fiscal resolution) can influence risk-on demand and exacerbate downside.

Opportunities and tactical response

If the Coinbase premium turns positive after US markets fully reopen or ETF flows reverse, institutional buying could trigger a bounce. For short-term traders, dip-buy setups can arise if on-chain selling subsides; for others, phased accumulation with strict risk controls and clear stop levels is preferable.

How traders can manage event risk across forex and crypto

Volatility around central bank decisions, fiscal announcements and concentrated crypto flows means active risk management is essential. Consider these practical steps:

  • Reduce leverage into major scheduled events (UK budget, Fed/BoE/ECB commentary).
  • Use clearly defined stop-losses and trailing stops to protect gains and limit losses.
  • Monitor on-chain indicators and ETF flows for crypto — they often precede price moves.
  • Scale position sizes and avoid all-in exposure to single headline outcomes.

Tools that help

Retail traders increasingly rely on automated strategies and data-driven execution to navigate fast-moving markets. For forex-focused execution and risk rules, a dedicated Forex Trading Bot can help apply consistent sizing, stops and entry rules. Crypto traders should consider a purpose-built Bitcoin Trading Bot or the Trade Assistant Bot to monitor flows, execute orders and manage multiple positions across exchanges during volatile windows.

Conclusion

Near-term market leadership is bifurcated: GBP faces heightened downside risk from a weaker labour market, political uncertainty and elevated BoE cut odds, while Bitcoin is vulnerable to supply-driven pressure from ETF outflows and large on-chain transfers. Traders should prioritize disciplined risk management, track key technical levels (GBP/USD 1.3100 and above/below), and watch ETF and on-chain metrics for signs of stabilization in BTC.

If you trade forex or crypto and want to apply systematic rules that react to changing conditions, consider testing an automated approach. Try the AI trading bot at PlayOnBit to backtest strategies, manage risk automatically and run consistent crypto trading and forex trading setups with fewer emotional decisions.