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November 4, 2025

BTC Plunge and AUD/USD Reaction: Liquidations Drive Crypto Volatility as RBA Holds Rates

Market snapshot

Global risk assets saw sharp, concentrated moves on November 3–4, 2025. Crypto markets experienced a large forced-liquidation event—over $1.2 billion wiped out across 319,433 positions—while in FX the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the Official Cash Rate at 3.6%, releasing its Monetary Policy Statement and forecasts. These twin developments produced pronounced short-term volatility in BTC/USD and AUD/USD and created both risk and trading opportunities.

Crypto flash crash: what happened

Data from Coinglass shows more than $1.2B of liquidations in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for over $1.1B versus about $115.5M in shorts. This follows prior reporting on crypto liquidations that explored market impacts. Bitcoin fell from about $108,000 to $105,000 in a sharp one-hour move, while Ether dropped from roughly $3,700 to $3,500; each suffered >$100M in liquidations during that hour. Bitcoin's move also breached technical levels noted in Bitcoin technicals. The largest single forced exit reported was a $33.9M liquidation on HTX. Other signs of stress included large wallet swings (for example 0xc2a3 flipping from +$33M to -$17.6M) and a brief negative Coinbase BTC premium (around -$30, briefly -$80), indicating US-led selling pressure.

Key crypto risks and opportunities

Risks: Cascading forced liquidations can amplify downside and volatility, with contagion to major altcoins (ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP) observed. Price dislocations across exchanges raise execution and counterparty risks for spot and derivatives traders.

Opportunities: Elevated volatility can open short-term dip-buy and mean-reversion trades in BTC/ETH, and create arbitrage and funding-rate plays across venues while premiums normalize.

RBA hold: why AUD/USD moved

The RBA was widely expected to leave the cash rate at 3.6%. Q3 CPI came in +1.3% q/q and annual inflation rose to 3.2%—above the 2–3% target range—while unemployment was 4.5% with employment up 14,900. Markets sharply reduced odds of a near-term rate cut (about 8% for this meeting and under 25% for December), pricing roughly one 25bp cut over the next 12 months to ~3.35%.

That "tighter for longer" narrative, combined with stronger labour data, put a short-term bullish bias under AUD/USD. That contrasts with episodes when the Aussie weakened after jobs misses and rising cut odds; see AUD/USD falls. However, dovish language in the Monetary Policy Statement or cautious commentary from Governor Bullock could quickly flip sentiment and drive volatility.

Technical levels to watch for AUD/USD

Immediate support: 0.6535 — a sustained break below could open a move toward ~0.6444. Upside targets on a confirmed hold and upbeat labour commentary: 0.6618 and 0.6650.

Trading implications across BTC and AUD/USD

Cross-asset volatility means traders should avoid one-size-fits-all positioning. For crypto traders, the recent liquidations highlight the importance of margin management and staggered position sizing; forced exits can occur quickly during hourly squeezes. For FX traders, the RBA’s stance favors AUD strength in the near term unless guidance becomes noticeably dovish.

Suggested approaches

Short-term crypto strategies: consider smaller, staggered long entries on BTC/ETH dips with tight, clearly defined stop-losses to manage liquidation risk; use tools such as the Bitcoin Trading Bot to manage size and stops on BTC positions and to execute timed, rule-based entries.

FX strategies: traders who want exposure to AUD/USD after the RBA hold can use defined-risk trades (options or tight-engineered spot positions), and implement disciplined execution with a Forex Trading Bot.

For multi-exchange opportunities and tactical guidance consider the Trade Assistant Bot to scan for premium dislocations and execute small, risk-controlled trades.

Risk management and technical checklist

  • Reassess leverage: high leverage amplified recent crypto losses—reduce size or increase margin buffers on volatile pairs.
  • Use stop disciplines: place stops beyond meaningful technical levels (e.g., BTC intraday supports; AUD/USD 0.6535).
  • Monitor cross-market flows: negative US-based exchange premiums may presage further selling pressure in crypto.
  • Watch central bank communications: RBA language can quickly alter rate-cut odds and AUD direction.

How automated trading and tools can help

In fast-moving sessions an AI trading bot or rule-based system can help by executing pre-defined risk rules, staggering entries, and reacting faster than manual execution in fragmented markets. Retail traders can benefit from automated strategies for both crypto and forex trading—for example, using product tools linked above to enforce size, stops and position rules.

Conclusion

The market’s twin narrative—large crypto liquidations causing acute short-term stress in BTC/ETH and a resilient RBA keeping rates higher-for-longer—creates a volatile but tradable landscape. Short-term traders can find opportunities in dip-buy setups and cross-exchange arbitrage in crypto, while FX traders should treat AUD/USD as prone to sharp moves tied to RBA commentary and technical breaks.

To navigate these conditions, prioritize disciplined risk management and consider automated trading to enforce rules and react quickly. Visit PlayOnBit to explore automated trading solutions and tools that can help manage positions across crypto and forex markets.