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October 16, 2025

AUD/USD Falls Below 0.6500 After Weak Australian Jobs Report; RBA Cut Odds Rise

Introduction — What happened to AUD/USD

AUD/USD dropped roughly 0.38% to around 0.6490 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported unemployment rose to 4.5% in September (from a 4.3% revised reading) while employment increased by +14.9k, missing the ~17k forecast. The weaker labour print immediately lifted market bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will resume monetary easing, with some traders and analysts (ING among them) flagging December as the likely timing for a first cut. The move comes against a subdued USD tone amid a partial US government shutdown, which adds an important cross-current for FX positioning — see EUR/USD reaction for related USD dynamics.

Macro context and market drivers

Australian labour data and RBA policy

The unemployment uptick and softer payrolls data reduce the near-term bar for an RBA rate cut. Markets are repricing policy with higher odds of easing, which tends to put downward pressure on the AUD relative to peers. For short- to medium-term AUD/USD positioning, the key conditional driver is whether upcoming inflation prints (Q3 CPI) remain hot enough to delay easing—anything materially hotter than consensus could reverse the immediate trade.

USD dynamics and external risks

At the same time, the USD is trading on a fragile footing after renewed Sino‑US trade escalation and the ongoing US government shutdown. A weaker DXY supports risk assets and commodity currencies generally, but a resolution of the shutdown or a sudden USD rebound (e.g., if safe‑haven flows remit or Treasury yields rise) could quickly reverse AUD pressure. For parallels on how weak labour prints reprice policy and pressure FX pairs, see the UK jobs print coverage. Traders should treat the current environment as event-sensitive and prone to sharp, policy-driven swings.

Technical picture for AUD/USD

Short-term technicals show AUD/USD slipping below the 0.6500 round number, an important psychological level and recent support. Key technical reference points to watch:

Immediate support and resistance

  • Support: 0.6480–0.6450 (near-term) and 0.6360–0.6320 (next structural zone).
  • Resistance: 0.6540–0.6560 (intraday), 0.6650 (recent swing highs).

Momentum indicators

Intraday momentum is bearish, but longer-term moving averages (50/200) and RSI levels should be monitored for divergence or oversold conditions that can trigger mean reversion bounces.

Trade ideas and positioning

Primary idea — Initiate/scale short AUD/USD

With RBA cut odds rising, initiating or scaling into short AUD/USD exposures is a clear tactical idea. Sample approach:

  • Entry: consider initiated shorts between 0.6510–0.6550 on corrective rallies or a break-and-retest below 0.6480.
  • Targets: first take-profit near 0.6400, secondary targets toward 0.6320 if risk-on flows deteriorate or RBA guidance confirms easing plans.
  • Stops: a sensible stop above 0.6600 on a full invalidation of the bearish thesis (or tighter depending on account risk).

Event-driven alternative — Long AUD on hotter inflation

If Q3 inflation prints materially hotter than expected and the RBA moves to delay easing, traders can take event-driven long exposure—preferably in small size or with clear stop rules—targeting a recovery above 0.6650 and beyond.

Risk management and execution

Short-term volatility is elevated due to policy and political risks. Use disciplined position sizing, avoid oversized directional bets into major economic releases, and consider layered entries to improve execution. If you prefer automated risk execution or want to test rule-based entries for forex trading, consider using a reliable bot to manage stops and scaling — for example, the forex trading bot or the trade assistant for disciplined order execution.

How automated trading can help

In an event-driven environment like this, automated trading and algorithmic rules can reduce emotional errors, enforce stop-loss discipline, and scale positions as volatility evolves. Whether you trade manually or prefer automated systems, connecting strategy rules to execution helps manage tail risks—this applies to both forex trading and broader markets, including crypto trading where sudden deleveraging events can cause extreme moves. For an example of another commodity-currency reaction to easing, see the NZD/USD slide.

Conclusion

Weak Australian labour market data pushed AUD/USD below 0.6500 as traders price a higher probability of an RBA rate cut in coming months. The path for AUD/USD will be shaped by upcoming Australian inflation prints, RBA guidance, and the wider USD trajectory tied to the US shutdown and global trade tensions. Short AUD positions (with disciplined stops) look attractive in the near term, while event-driven long trades should be reserved for clear inflation surprises that change the policy outlook. For tools to test disciplined, rule-based entries and automated execution, visit PlayOnBit.