EUR/USD Rises on USD Weakness as ETH Falls Below $3,300 on Technical Sell Signals

Market snapshot

A prolonged US government shutdown and fresh labour‑market stress have created a data vacuum and pushed the US dollar lower, supporting EUR/USD near recent highs. At the same time, equity weakness in AI‑related tech names and mixed risk sentiment are weighing on crypto markets: Ethereum (ETH) has broken below $3,300 with a daily MACD on a sell signal and falling futures open interest.

Why EUR/USD is benefiting from USD headwinds

Macro drivers

The ongoing US government shutdown — now the longest on record — has delayed official releases and increased reliance on private data. That uncertainty, combined with a spike in Challenger job cuts (≈153k in October) and mixed ADP payrolls, has softened the dollar. The DXY retreated to about 99.75 after a brief five‑month high, while CME FedWatch implies the market has repriced Fed easing odds (roughly ~70% for a December cut), reducing near‑term USD support. For more on how Fed cues can reverse EUR/USD rallies, see Fed focus returns.

Technical and trade implication

EUR/USD bulls can argue for tactical upside: with USD hampered by the data blackout and softer labour signals, short‑term targets in EUR/USD focus on re‑testing recent resistance levels. Risks include a rapid resolution of the shutdown or stronger‑than‑expected US releases that could revive USD demand. Traders looking to capitalise on currency moves should combine macro context with disciplined stops and position sizing.

Ethereum: technical sell signal and flows matter

Price action and indicators

ETH traded below $3,300 and the daily MACD flashed a sell signal. Near‑term support levels to watch are $3,057 and $2,880, while key resistance remains at the 200‑day EMA (~$3,599). Declines in futures open interest (from an Oct peak ~ $63B to ~$38.6B) suggest less leveraged speculation at current levels, which can amplify price moves when liquidity is thin.

Flows and supply dynamics

Exchange reserves have fallen materially (to ~13.3M ETH from ~35.5M in Aug 2020), indicating accumulation off‑exchange and potential scarcity if demand returns. However, recent US‑listed ETH ETF outflows impact (~$119M on Wednesday) and downticks in open interest create a near‑term bearish backdrop until technicals improve or inflows resume.

Practical trade ideas

For forex traders

Consider tactical EUR/USD long positions on dips while the USD data vacuum persists, using tight risk controls. Options-based index hedges or FX options can limit downside in case of quick USD repricing. Retail traders who prefer systematic execution may evaluate automated strategies — including the Forex Trading Bot — to capture intraday and swing opportunities while enforcing disciplined risk rules.

For crypto traders

Given ETH's technical weakness, short‑term traders can look for momentum continuation toward $3,057/$2,880 or a mean‑reversion play if ETH closes back above the 200‑day EMA (~$3,599). Consider reducing directional exposure or hedging with futures/options until volatility and flows stabilise. Execution and trade management for spot and derivatives can be automated via platforms such as the Binance Trading Bot for exchanges or using a multi‑market Trade Assistant Bot to monitor signals and rebalance positions.

Risk management and scenarios to monitor

Key risks that could reverse current moves include: a swift end to the government shutdown or a surprise USD strength narrative from Fed officials; a sudden pickup in institutional demand for ETH (which could push prices sharply higher given lower exchange reserves); and renewed equity market strength if AI/tech valuations stabilise. Use stop losses and consider position sizing that reflects the elevated volatility and liquidity uncertainty.

Conclusion

Near term, EUR/USD looks set to benefit from the USD's data‑driven weakness while ETH faces headwinds from technical indicators and outflows. Traders active in both markets should blend macro cues with on‑chain and flow metrics, and apply disciplined risk controls. For those who want to operationalise strategies across asset classes, automated trading and AI‑assisted execution can improve consistency: explore algorithmic tools for forex and crypto — from forex trading automation to crypto spot/derivatives bots — to help manage entries, exits and risk.

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