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November 4, 2025

Bitcoin Slides Below $104,000 as ETF Outflows and Long‑Holder Deposits Increase Exchange Liquidity

Market snapshot: Bitcoin under pressure after renewed selling

Bitcoin slipped below $104,000 in early trading as a combination of large long‑holder deposits to exchanges and continued spot ETF outflows increased near‑term selling pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reported an estimated $186.51M outflow on Monday (continuing outflows since Oct 29), a reversal from prior ETF inflows, while on‑chain monitoring shows notable transfers: one reported wallet (Owen Gunden) added ~1,289 BTC to exchange balances and another legacy wallet moved roughly 13,000 BTC to major exchanges since Oct 1.

Why flows matter: institutional and legacy inventory

ETF outflows and rising exchange balances from long‑term holders reduce immediate buy‑side support. The CME futures annualized basis has compressed to ~1.98% — the lowest in more than two years — signaling weaker institutional futures demand. That combination increases the risk that technical support levels will be tested more aggressively, especially if selling accelerates into thinner liquidity windows.

Technical picture

Short‑term technicals are tilted bearish: the daily RSI is around 35 with a MACD bearish crossover. Immediate daily support sits near $106,453; a decisive close below that could increase the probability of a test of the Oct 10 lows near $102,000 and open the psychological $100,000 level to renewed attention. On the upside, recovery attempts face resistance at the 100‑day EMA near $112,152 and other moving averages which have not yet shown clear bullish confirmation. For context on moving‑average based weakness and deleveraging dynamics see 200-day SMA.

Key levels to watch

Support: $106,453 (daily), $102,000 (Oct low), $100,000 (psychological). Resistance: 100‑day EMA ~$112,152, recent swing highs near $118k–$120k. Momentum indicators remain biased lower until price reclaims the 100‑day EMA with volume expansion.

Risks and opportunities for traders

Risks include sustained selling from legacy holders, continued ETF outflows, and low futures demand — all of which could push Bitcoin below $100,000 if liquidity conditions worsen. Conversely, oversold technical readings and the market's historical tendency to mean‑revert create tactical opportunities: a stabilization of on‑chain flows or a pause in ETF outflows could trigger short‑covering and a bounce toward the 100‑day EMA.

Practical trade ideas

  • Short‑term traders: consider defined‑risk short exposures beneath daily close failures at $106,453 with tight stops above recent intraday resistance. Use smaller size and layered entries to manage the tail risk associated with sudden liquidity shifts.
  • Mean‑reversion traders: look for volume‑backed candles and a stabilization of exchange inflows before initiating buy‑the‑dip positions; target a first retracement to the 100‑day EMA (~$112k).
  • Longer‑term investors: monitor accumulation by long‑term holders and institutional demand metrics (ETF flows, futures basis) as a guide to when to scale into lower prices.

Risk management and execution

Given the potential for fast moves — both from large balance transfers and low institutional bidding — traders should prioritize strict position sizing, staggered entries, and predefined stop levels. Volatility can spike quickly around large on‑chain transfers or headlines; using limit orders and keeping margin usage conservative reduces the chance of forced exits during whipsaw moves.

How automated strategies can help

Automated trading systems can assist with execution during volatile sessions by enforcing discipline and removing emotion. For traders focused on bitcoin execution and monitoring, specialized tools such as a Bitcoin Trading Bot or an exchange‑specific solution like the Binance Trading Bot help scale entries, run hedged strategies, and implement time‑weighted average price (TWAP) or dollar‑cost averaging plans. The Trade Assistant can also automate alerts and position management rules so traders can react to changing on‑chain and flow data more quickly.

Bottom line

Bitcoin's dip under $104,000 reflects a fragile near‑term balance: reduced institutional futures engagement, ETF outflows, and increased exchange deposits from legacy holders. Technicals favor downside continuation while oversold conditions could invite tactical bounces if flows stabilize. Traders should combine strict risk controls with vigilant monitoring of ETF flows and on‑chain exchange balances.

Next steps for active traders

If you trade crypto or manage cross‑asset exposure that includes crypto and forex trading, consider testing automated strategies that enforce sizing, stops, and execution rules during volatile windows. For hands‑on traders seeking automated execution and monitoring, visit PlayOnBit to explore solutions designed for crypto markets and learn how an AI‑driven approach can help with disciplined entries and exits.

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Manage volatility with technology: try an AI trading bot at PlayOnBit to automate entries, exits, and risk controls and reduce execution risk during fast moves.