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October 21, 2025

Bitcoin Slips Below 200‑SMA as Solana Weakness Highlights Crypto Deleveraging

Overview

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has slipped below the 200‑day simple moving average (~$108k) after reversing from near $111k, pressured by large ETF outflows, falling futures Open Interest and leveraged short positions. At the same time Solana (SOL) is trading around $185 under its 200‑day EMA (~$186) with weakening on‑chain metrics and a daily MACD sell signal. Together these moves point to short‑term deleveraging and elevated volatility across the crypto complex.

Bitcoin — technicals, flows and risks

Key data

  • Price: below $108,000 after failing to sustain a move above $111,000.
  • Technicals: trading beneath the 200 SMA (~$108k); MACD and momentum indicators turned negative on the daily chart.
  • Flows: Bitcoin ETFs recorded meaningful outflows (roughly $1.23B net outflow last week; $40.47M outflows on Monday in the latest data).
  • Derivatives: Bitcoin futures Open Interest has declined materially (down ~23% from the early‑October peak); see related notes on long liquidations surge.

Risks

Continued ETF outflows and falling futures OI signal deleveraging — a daily close below the 200 SMA would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward the $101k–$100k area. Macro catalysts (upcoming US CPI and FOMC events) and cross‑asset weakness in equities could amplify downside and liquidity stress.

Opportunities

If BTC reclaims and holds above the 200 SMA and the $110k–$111k zone, technical recovery could accelerate toward $114.5k and beyond. Traders looking for structured approaches can consider momentum shorts while using tight risk controls, or staged dip accumulation (DCA) for longer‑term exposure.

Solana — on‑chain deterioration and implications

Key data

  • Price: trading around $185, below the 200‑day EMA (~$186) and down from a prior high near $194.
  • On‑chain: active addresses averaged ~15M the week ending Oct 19, down from much higher levels earlier in the year.
  • Derivatives: futures Open Interest has fallen to about $8.64B from an October peak near $15B; OI‑weighted funding rates have moved toward neutral/negative territory.

Risks

Falling on‑chain activity and reduced OI can erode liquidity and developer engagement, increasing the likelihood of further downside — models suggest roughly 6% additional risk if negative momentum persists and SOL closes daily below the 200‑day EMA.

Opportunities

A clear rebound above the 200‑day EMA accompanied by a MACD bullish crossover would open a path toward the $190–$200 area. Reduced price and OI also create tactical value‑entry or potential short‑squeeze scenarios if funding normalizes and liquidity returns.

Cross‑market context

Broader crypto weakness is correlated with equity and macro uncertainty: major indices showed weakness in recent sessions and total crypto market cap has contracted. Institutional behavior is shifting — large corporate treasury purchases have slowed while capital rotates into regulated spot ETFs and yield‑bearing products. These flow changes matter for both spot price discovery and derivatives market behavior.

Practical trading implications

Risk management and signals to watch

  • Monitor BTC 200 SMA (~$108k) and SOL 200‑day EMA (~$186) for decisive daily closes.
  • Watch futures Open Interest, OI‑weighted funding rates and ETF flow reports for confirmation of deleveraging or re‑risking.
  • For directional trades use tight stops and position sizing to account for potential spikes in volatility; consider hedges (inverse instruments or options) ahead of major macro prints.

Tactical setups

  • Short‑momentum trade: enter on confirmed breakdowns below key moving averages with OI/funding supporting the move.
  • Dip accumulation: staggered buys on defined support levels with a view to Q4 seasonality and possible rate‑cut hopes next year.
  • Volatility strategies: consider options straddles or put spreads around major events to manage asymmetric risk.

Automation and execution

Given rapid flow changes and heightened intraday noise, many traders benefit from algorithmic execution and rule‑based position management. Tools such as the Bitcoin Trading Bot for BTC strategies and the Binance Trading Bot for exchange execution can help enforce discipline. The Trade Assistant Bot provides configurable alerts and automated risk rules that are useful when markets move quickly.

Conclusion

The short‑term picture favors caution: Bitcoin’s failure to hold the 200‑day SMA and Solana’s on‑chain deterioration together signal a period of deleveraging and elevated downside risk. Traders should track moving averages, funding rates, OI and ETF flows as primary inputs for positioning. Whether deploying directional, hedging or volatility strategies, disciplined execution and risk controls are essential.

Next steps for active traders

If you trade crypto or cross‑asset strategies, consider combining real‑time signal monitoring with automated execution to reduce emotional errors. PlayOnBit offers solutions that support disciplined crypto trading and automated trading workflows across spot and derivatives — including tools tailored for Bitcoin strategies and exchange execution. Ready to test an AI‑driven approach to execution and risk management? Try an AI trading bot on PlayOnBit to automate order execution, position sizing and risk rules across markets.