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November 4, 2025

Bitcoin Nears $103K, Ethereum Slides to $3,500 as ETF Outflows Accelerate

Market snapshot

Bitcoin traded near $103,000 and Ethereum around $3,500 after a second day of declines as US-listed spot crypto ETF outflows accelerated and macro drivers favored the US dollar. Monday’s flows included roughly $187M of net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and $136M of outflows from US-listed Ethereum ETFs (BlackRock ETHA -$82M, Fidelity FETH -$25M). Derivatives metrics also weakened: futures open interest has slid from October peaks and funding rates are suppressed, increasing the risk of liquidity-driven moves.

Why this matters for traders

Large ETF outflows reduce institutional bid density and can amplify downside when combined with falling futures open interest and negative funding. Technical indicators for both large-cap coins are bearish — BTC’s RSI sits in the mid-30s and ETH’s RSI is around 33, while daily MACD signals have flipped toward selling. In short-term markets, that mix raises the probability of momentum-led declines, larger intraday liquidations, and choppier trade execution.

Key macro drivers

Two important cross-currents are magnifying crypto downside: a firmer US dollar and heightened macro uncertainty. The US Dollar Index recently moved above 100 as the Fed signalled caution on an early move to cut rates, which historically weighs on dollar-priced risk assets including crypto and commodities. Ongoing US government shutdown uncertainty and sparse near-term data add to the risk-off bias.

Technical levels and trade scenarios

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Current picture: trading near $103,000; daily RSI ~35; recent close below several moving-average supports. Near-term levels to watch: support at $102,500, next major floor near $98,295; resistance and short-covering target around $110,000.

Scenarios:

  • Bear case: a decisive break below $102,500 would open a path toward $98k and increase liquidation risk — short/hedge strategies with tight risk controls are viable for momentum traders.
  • Bull case: if BTC stabilizes at $102,500 and posts a recovery above $110,000, traders can consider tactical dip-buying or de-risked long entries, targeting moving-average cross confirmations.

Ethereum (ETHUSD)

Current picture: trading near $3,500 after two consecutive days lower; daily MACD showing a sell signal and RSI around 33. Derivatives trends: futures open interest has declined materially since October peaks, and flows into US spot ETH ETFs showed notable outflows on Monday.

Key levels: support near $3,350, then the 200-day EMA at roughly $3,606 as a medium-term reversal trigger. A daily close above the 200-day EMA would improve constructive bias and could open targets toward the 50-day EMA (~$4,034). Conversely, breach of $3,350 risks extension lower to earlier lows.

Scenarios:

  • Short continuation: with ETF outflows and weak funding, short setups targeting $3,350 (and lower) have favorable risk-reward if $3,500 support fails.
  • Mean reversion: should buyers defend $3,350, a disciplined dip-buy with tight stops could target a move back to the 200-day EMA as liquidity returns.

Risk management and practical guidance

Given the combination of flow-driven pressure, technical sell signals, and macro headwinds, traders should prioritize position sizing, stop discipline, and liquidity awareness. Volatility can spike quickly: roughly $1.33B of crypto liquidations occurred in a recent 24-hour window, demonstrating how crowded long positioning can unwind fast.

Practical rules to consider:

  • Define stop levels relative to the technical levels above rather than fixed percent exposures.
  • Use smaller size and staggered entries on the short side to manage gap risk.
  • Hedge larger directional exposures with inverse products or options where appropriate.

How to act across markets and time zones

Crypto markets trade 24/7, so automated approaches can help execute rules consistently — for example, automating stop placement, scaling logic, and risk limits can reduce emotional errors during fast moves. Tools like the Trade Assistant Bot or a dedicated Bitcoin Trading Bot can implement systematic short/hedge strategies or disciplined dip-buy algorithms across exchanges. For traders who also operate in FX, cross-asset awareness is important: USD strength is a major driver of current weakness in crypto and procyclical FX pairs.

Checklist before entering trades

  • Confirm ETF flow and funding-rate trends (are outflows persisting?).
  • Validate liquidity on your execution venue (watch order-book depth around key levels).
  • Use position sizing aligned with max drawdown tolerances and consider automated stop-management.

Conclusion

BTC near $103k and ETH around $3,500 reflect a risk-off environment driven by ETF outflows, weaker derivatives participation, and a firmer USD. Traders should watch $102,500 for Bitcoin and $3,350/200-day EMA for Ethereum as decision points for short continuation or cautious dip-buy setups. Given elevated liquidation risk and 24/7 market dynamics, disciplined automation and clear risk rules can be valuable.

If you want to test automated approaches that execute those rules consistently, try a scripted strategy or the Trade Assistant Bot. For traders focused on Bitcoin execution, consider using a dedicated Bitcoin Trading Bot to automate entries, stops and position-sizing.