USD/JPY Surges Above 153 After Fed Hold; Traders Brace for Powell Guidance

Market snapshot: USD strength lifts USD/JPY above 153

On Jan. 28, 2026 USD/JPY recovered decisively above 153 — trading in the 153.3–153.9 range in Asian and early US hours — after the Federal Reserve kept policy rates unchanged and reiterated a data-dependent stance. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded to roughly 96.70, reflecting a short-term pickup in dollar momentum. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reaffirmed a strong-dollar policy and denied US intervention to support the yen, helped cement near-term strength.

Why this matters

The combination of a Fed policy hold (decision largely priced in) and pro-dollar messaging from Treasury increases the near-term likelihood of continuation in dollar strength, especially against the yen. The US–Japan yield differential remains supportive of USD/JPY, but the pair is vulnerable to rapid reversals if risk sentiment shifts or if Japanese authorities signal intervention.

Key drivers

Federal Reserve: The FOMC left rates unchanged and stressed a data-dependent path. Markets will parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference for clues about timing and pace of potential rate cuts; any hint of earlier easing would quickly weaken the dollar.

Treasury comments: Scott Bessent publicly denied US intervention to prop up the yen and emphasized a strong-dollar policy, reducing near-term prospects of coordinated action to support JPY.

Market positioning: USD/JPY rallied on momentum after the decision; short-term technicals now favor tactical long positions while traders watch for signs of a BoJ policy shift or direct intervention.

Technical outlook for USD/JPY

Short-term momentum is bullish following the move above 153. Intermediate resistance sits near the session highs around 154.50–155.00, while initial support is found at prior breakout area ~153.00 and the more structural 152.00 zone. A decisive break above 155 could attract trend-following flows; conversely, a rapid shift in risk sentiment or dovish Fed signals could trigger sharp retracements toward 150–151 on increased safe-haven demand for the yen.

Trade ideas and tactical setups

Given the current backdrop, traders could consider tactical long USD/JPY on intraday momentum or on disciplined pullbacks toward 153.00, with clearly defined stops below recent structure. Scalpers and intraday traders should be wary of volatility around Powell's press briefing — moves can be swift and widen spreads.

Execution and risk management

Execution quality matters in volatile, yen-sensitive markets. Retail traders can improve order routing and discipline by combining strategy signals with reliable execution tools. For traders who prefer automation, a dedicated Forex Trading Bot can help manage entries, stops, and position sizing during high-impact events. The Trade Assistant Bot is also useful for monitoring price levels and automating routine adjustments to active positions.

Risks to monitor

1) BoJ policy shifts or hints of direct yen support can quickly reverse USD/JPY gains — Japanese intervention is a high-impact asymmetric risk. 2) A dovish surprise from Powell or softer US data would undermine the dollar. 3) Broader risk-off flows (equities sell-off or global economic concerns) could strengthen the yen as a safe haven. Manage position sizing and use tight risk controls around major headlines.

Implications for broader forex and crypto markets

Stronger dollar dynamics often ripple through other FX pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD) and can influence risk assets. A renewed dollar bid may pressure crypto markets in the short term as marginal liquidity shifts back to dollar cash. Traders active in both fiat and digital markets should consider coordinated risk policies and the benefits of automated trading when volatility spikes — automated strategies can enforce discipline across asset classes and speed execution for crypto trading and forex trading alike.

Conclusion

USD/JPY's move above 153 reflects a combination of a Fed policy hold, supportive Treasury messaging, and the persistent US–Japan yield gap. The immediate trading edge is tactical long momentum while respecting the substantial intervention and risk-off risks. Whether you trade manually or prefer automated approaches, clear rules and execution quality are essential around Powell's press conference and potential BoJ surprises.

If you want to test disciplined, rule-based execution during these events, consider automating entries and risk controls — for example with PlayOnBit's tools for automated trading. Visit PlayOnBit to learn more and try the AI trading bot that can help execute forex and crypto strategies with defined risk parameters. Try the AI trading bot on PlayOnBit today to automate your strategy and manage volatile sessions with confidence.