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December 31, 2025

USD/JPY Rises Toward 156.60 After FOMC Minutes Signal Delayed Fed Cuts; ETH Accumulation Points to Structural Demand

Market snapshot: Dollar strength lifts USD/JPY; BitMine's ETH buying tightens supply

Late Asian trade saw USD/JPY rise roughly 0.2% toward 156.60 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 98.30, a one-week high. The move followed the release of the FOMC minutes, which indicated officials discussed the need for further rate cuts but also considered moving toward a more neutral stance — a combination that has pushed firmed expectations for cuts further into 2026 (CME FedWatch is pricing at least 50bp of cuts in 2026).

At the same time, crypto market structure showed notable demand concentration: BitMine purchased 32,938 ETH (~$97.6M) and now holds roughly 4.07M ETH (~$12B) while staking an additional 118,944 ETH. The miner has accumulated more than 77,400 ETH since last Monday and has been a >40,000 ETH weekly buyer for over 10 consecutive weeks, reducing available sellable supply and creating a structural support for ether.

Why USD/JPY moved — macro drivers and near-term dynamics

Two forces explain the recent USD/JPY strength: a firmer dollar and doubts over near-term BoJ tightening. The FOMC minutes showed officials debating the timing and size of future cuts rather than committing to immediate easing, which reduced short-term priced-in Fed accommodation and supported the dollar. Meanwhile, markets remain skeptical about a rapid Bank of Japan pivot given ongoing fiscal support and legacy ultra-loose policy, leaving the yen under selling pressure.

Key risk factors to monitor:

Risks that could reverse the move

  • Any unexpected BoJ policy shift toward tightening or direct FX intervention would quickly reverse JPY weakness and press USD/JPY lower.
  • Risk-off episodes (flight-to-safety) would likely strengthen the yen and counter current upside.
  • Faster-than-expected Fed easing — for example, accelerated cuts or stronger dovish guidance — could weaken the dollar and undermine momentum.

ETH accumulation: supply-side support amid year-end distortions

BitMine's sustained buying and staking activity reduces liquid ETH supply and constitutes a notable demand shock. This matters especially during holiday periods when liquidity is thin and year-end tax-loss selling can create temporary downward pressure. The trend also aligns with signs of institutional interest such as the Ether trust filing, which could add to medium-term inflows.

Key points for ether:

Opportunities

  • Large-scale accumulation and staking by a single institutional entity reduces available sellable ETH and provides structural demand support.
  • If year-end tax-loss selling and thin holiday liquidity abate, ETH could see a rebound — presenting potential buy-the-dip opportunities for mid-term traders.

Risks

  • Continued tax-loss selling and thin liquidity can prolong volatility and deepen drawdowns.
  • Regulatory or tax-policy developments (e.g., proposals affecting crypto taxation) could impair sentiment and dampen inflows.

Practical trading implications

For forex traders, the USD/JPY setup favors momentum and carry-based strategies while the BoJ maintains a reluctant stance and Fed cuts remain distant. Consider these tactical considerations:

  • Short-term momentum: Look for continuation above 156.20 with stops under recent intraday lows and manage position size given potential intervention risk.
  • Carry trades: Longer-dated carry strategies can benefit from the yield differential, but be prepared for sharp reversals on policy surprises or risk-off flows.
  • Risk control: Use clearly defined stop levels and size positions for potential sudden BoJ intervention or yen-strengthening flight-to-safety events.

For crypto traders looking at ETH, the accumulation narrative supports a constructive mid-term view, but timing is crucial amid holiday illiquidity:

  • Accumulation strategy: Consider staggered buys on confirmed support zones rather than lump-sum entries to reduce execution risk in thin markets.
  • Staking and holding: Institutional staking reduces floating supply and can lift conviction for longer-term holds; traders should weigh staking lock-up terms and counterparty risks.
  • Volatility management: Use limit orders and disciplined position sizing to withstand tax-loss selling windows and sudden liquidity gaps.

How automated tools can help execute these ideas

Automation and algorithmic execution can be particularly useful in these conditions. For forex trading, a dedicated Forex Trading Bot can manage entries and dynamic stops around volatile news events like the FOMC minutes. For crypto, using a Binance Trading Bot or the Trade Assistant Bot can automate staggered buys, rebalance exposures, and execute limit or TWAP-style orders to reduce slippage during low-liquidity periods.

Trade plan examples (illustrative)

Note: These are illustrative, not investment advice.

USD/JPY (momentum trade)

  • Entry: Break and hold above 156.30 on hourly close.
  • Target: Initial target 157.20 — extend if DXY maintains above 98.50.
  • Stop: 50–70 pips below entry depending on account risk tolerance.

ETH (staggered accumulation)

  • Entry: Ladder buys across a 3–6% range from recent local lows to capture mean reversion during thin liquidity.
  • Target: Use mid-term targets aligned with on-chain demand recovery and reduction in sellable supply; consider trimming into strength.
  • Risk management: Limit exposure size relative to portfolio; be mindful of staking lock-up and counterparty risks.

Conclusion

USD/JPY's uptick toward 156.60 reflects a stronger dollar and continued skepticism about immediate BoJ tightening, while FOMC minutes pushed meaningful rate-cut expectations into 2026. In crypto markets, BitMine's large-scale ETH accumulation and staking materially reduce liquid supply, supporting a constructive medium-term outlook for ether despite year-end liquidity and tax-related pressure.

Retail traders can benefit from combining macro-aware positioning with disciplined execution. Automated trading and algorithmic tools help manage timing, execution, and risk during volatile news and thin liquidity periods. For further testing and live execution, visit PlayOnBit.