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November 10, 2025

USD/JPY Near 153.70 as BoJ Uncertainty Weighs on Yen; Bitcoin Holds $98k–$100k Support

Market snapshot: BoJ uncertainty lifts USD/JPY; Bitcoin tests key support

USD/JPY traded around 153.70 as the yen slipped from a one-week high amid lingering uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate-hike timing. The BoJ's Summary of Opinions is due later Monday and will be watched for clearer guidance. At the same time, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans a roughly $65bn stimulus package and a supplementary budget — fiscal action that could influence market reactions to BoJ policy comments and the broader dovish BoJ outlook.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin sits near $102,250 with a defined strong support zone at $98,000–$100,000. Analysts warn of a potential November 'sell the news' pullback — typical bull-market corrections of 25–40% — though current profit-taking remains below that range. Both markets reflect a short-term trend environment with elevated event risk and a confidence level in analyst calls around 75%. ETF flow dynamics and recent fund flows remain a key driver for crypto volatility and positioning.

USD/JPY — drivers, levels, and trade implications

Macro drivers

Key forces behind the yen's weakness are policy divergence and macro data. The Federal Reserve remains on a path that keeps US yields elevated relative to Japan, preserving a US–Japan yield differential supportive of USD/JPY. However, the BoJ's reluctance to commit to further hikes — despite September minutes showing more policymakers open to moves — keeps the narrative uncertain. The upcoming Summary of Opinions is the next major potential catalyst.

US consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell to 50.3 in November, the weakest since June 2022. Softer US sentiment can cap dollar strength, but unless the BoJ signals imminent tightening, the persistent yield gap could keep USD/JPY biased higher in the short term.

Technical levels to watch

Short-term technicals to monitor:

  • Immediate resistance: 154.20–154.70 (recent highs).
  • Support cluster: 152.20–152.60 (intra-week support) and 150.00 as a stronger psychological floor.
  • Momentum: price action above the 50-hour moving average favors further upside, but a decisive break below 152.00 would open a pullback toward 150.00.

Risks and trade ideas

Primary risk: the BoJ unexpectedly signals imminent tightening or delivers clearer hawkish guidance in the Summary of Opinions — that would likely strengthen JPY and reverse short-term USD/JPY gains. Risk-off flows or volatility from US fiscal developments could also push capital into safe-haven JPY. There is also the potential for possible FX intervention if USD/JPY accelerates sharply.

Opportunities: if the BoJ remains non-committal, the yield differential and fiscal stimulus expectations could sustain USD/JPY upside. Traders looking to express the bias can consider trend-following entries on pullbacks, tight stops below 152.00, and size scaled to volatility. For those using automated approaches, a Forex Trading Bot can help capture intraday momentum while enforcing risk limits.

Bitcoin — support, risks, and positioning ahead of potential pullback

Market structure and macro context

Bitcoin is trading around $102,250 with clearly defined strong support at $98,000–$100,000. The market is facing typical bull-market dynamics: profit-taking, headline-driven volatility, and concentrated insider selling. Macro data and Fed rate-cut expectations have been broadly in line with estimates, which leaves crypto more sensitive to flows and positioning than to macro surprises right now. ETF-driven flows are a particular near-term focus for BTC volatility.

Key levels and scenarios

- Key support: $98,000–$100,000. A breach here could target $90,000 as the next structural support.

- Immediate resistance: $105,000–$108,000; reclaiming above these levels would reduce near-term correction risk.

- Scenario A (bearish): A 'sell the news' rotation in November triggers a correction toward $90k (-~12% from current quoted levels vs. deeper scenarios of 25–40% if broader deleveraging occurs).

- Scenario B (bullish): Consolidation above $98k–$100k leads to renewed accumulation and a Q4 continuation if macro flows support risky assets.

Risk management and trade ideas

High chance of short-term correction or liquidation means position sizing and stop placement are critical. Traders seeking exposure can use layered entries into the $98k–$100k zone, and set stop-losses below $96k if the strategy requires stricter protection. If you prefer automated approaches to execute defined rules during high-volatility episodes, consider a Bitcoin Trading Bot or the Binance Trading Bot to manage entries, scaling, and stop-loss execution.

Positioning, correlation and practical notes for traders

Correlations matter: a sharp risk-off move that strengthens JPY could coincide with a pullback in Bitcoin and other risk assets. Keep intermarket links in mind — USD/JPY and equity/crypto flows can move together during episodes of global risk repricing.

Short-term traders should be prepared for event-driven volatility around the BoJ Summary of Opinions and any macro headlines that influence sentiment. Use clear stop-loss rules and consider diversification across timeframes and instruments. Automated trading strategies can enforce discipline during rapid moves and help maintain consistent execution when emotion rises.

Conclusion and next steps

Near-term, USD/JPY looks biased higher as the yen grapples with policy uncertainty and fiscal stimulus expectations in Japan, while Bitcoin faces a high-probability correction risk with a clearly defined support zone at $98k–$100k. Both markets require active risk management and attention to event catalysts — the BoJ Summary of Opinions on Monday for FX, and broader macro and flow signals for crypto.

If you trade these markets frequently, consider incorporating systematic rules and automated trading to maintain discipline through volatile stretches. PlayOnBit offers tools for both discretionary and algorithmic approaches — from the Trade Assistant Bot that helps with signals and execution to instrument-specific bots like the Forex Trading Bot and the Bitcoin Trading Bot. These solutions can support crypto trading, forex trading, and broader automated trading strategies while enforcing risk management.

Try an AI trading bot on PlayOnBit to backtest rules and automate entries in USD/JPY or Bitcoin — start a free trial or demo to see how algorithmic approaches handle event-driven volatility.