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October 29, 2025

USD/JPY Breaks Below 152 Ahead of BoJ Meeting as Markets Price Policy Normalization

Overview

USD/JPY fell below the 152.00 level as traders priced an increased probability of Bank of Japan policy normalisation, echoing earlier BoJ repricing. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supporting Japan's policy autonomy, together with heightened market attention on the BoJ meeting due tomorrow, have driven a stronger yen across major crosses. Technical momentum has turned bearish, creating actionable setups for short-term forex traders while event risk remains high. For background on recent positioning moves see earlier BoJ repricing.

What moved the market

Policy signalling and political backing

Markets reacted to public signals that Japanese authorities will not interfere with the Bank of Japan's independence, and swap markets doubled the odds of a BoJ rate hike to roughly 20%. That repricing, combined with ongoing speculation about the timing of policy normalisation, has supported JPY strength.

Macro and risk backdrop

Global factors are adding nuance. Broad Fed dovishness priced by markets (expectations of a 25bp cut in October) could weaken the USD over time, but a prolonged US government shutdown is creating data gaps that increase policy uncertainty. Stronger-than-expected US data or hawkish Fed messaging would still be able to revive USD demand and cap JPY gains; recent market moves tied to central bank commentary are discussed in the context of FOMC minutes volatility.

Technical picture

Key technical observations for USD/JPY:

  • Immediate support cluster: 151.15 (21 DMA), 150.10 (23.6% fibo), 149.20.
  • Near-term resistance: 153.30 (double-top), followed by 154.50–155.00.
  • Momentum indicators: daily RSI has rolled over and bullish momentum has faded, consistent with the short-term bearish bias.

Risks, opportunities and trade ideas

Risks traders should monitor

  • BoJ surprises to the hawkish side or verbal intervention from the MoF could accelerate JPY strength and create gap moves.
  • A sudden pickup in US growth or hawkish Fed communication would likely lift USD/JPY and invalidate short positions.
  • The US government shutdown is delaying key economic releases, increasing the chance of unexpected volatility when data flow resumes.

Opportunities and tactical setups

Given the current setup, consider the following short-term opportunities while managing event risk:

  • Short USD/JPY on a confirmed break below 151.15 with an initial target at 150.10 and a secondary target near 149.20; use a tight stop above 153.30 to control tail risk.
  • Sell rallies into 153.00–153.50 if momentum fails to recover ahead of the BoJ decision, looking for mean-reversion entries aligned with the broader JPY strength theme.
  • For cross pairs, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY may offer higher volatility plays; momentum shorts in GBP/JPY clears 212 have been productive while JPY strength persists.

Position sizing and event risk

Keep position sizes conservative around central bank events. Use staggered entries and predefined stops to protect against intervention-style moves. If holding through the BoJ announcement, consider reducing exposure or using option structures to cap downside in case of large gaps. Review execution considerations such as slippage explained when planning entries in fast markets.

How automated tools can help

Retail traders can benefit from clear rules and fast execution when trading event-driven forex moves. Backtesting and real-time signal management — core features of many modern platforms — help validate setups and enforce risk parameters. Consider using a Forex Trading Bot for disciplined order execution and the Trade Assistant Bot to monitor multiple JPY crosses, automate stop-loss adjustments, and run scenario-based alerts while you focus on macro judgement.

Checklist before taking a position

  • Confirm technical trigger (break or rejection) on your preferred timeframe.
  • Define stop-loss and take-profit levels before entry and size positions per account risk rules.
  • Monitor BoJ communications and MoF commentary for last-minute shifts in verbal guidance.
  • Be mindful of the US data blackout caused by the government shutdown — surprises are more likely when releases resume.

Conclusion

USD/JPY's move below 152 reflects growing market conviction that Japan may begin a path toward normalising policy sooner than previously expected. The setup favors short-term JPY longs/short USD/JPY positions, but elevated event risk around the BoJ meeting and the US data blackout mean traders should prioritise risk control. For disciplined execution and to automate entry, risk management and monitoring across multiple JPY crosses, retail traders can evaluate automated trading tools — including the Forex Trading Bot and Trade Assistant Bot — to implement strategies with speed and consistency.

Whether you trade manually or use an AI trading bot, combine macro insight with robust position-sizing and plan for rapid volatility. Interested in testing automated setups for forex trading or exploring systematic approaches for your portfolio? Visit PlayOnBit to try live tools built for retail traders now.