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November 18, 2025

EUR/USD Slips Below 1.1600 as Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US NFP

Market snapshot

EUR/USD dropped ~0.30% in the North American session, slipping below 1.1600 as broad dollar strength re-emerged ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release and additional Federal Reserve commentary. The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing index showed improvement, while Fed speakers delivered mixed tones: comments from Jeffers were slightly dovish, but Governor Waller reiterated support for continuing easing in December. Short-term market sentiment is tilted bearish, with traders positioning for event-driven volatility. See recent dollar developments in DXY near five‑month highs.

Key drivers

Macro catalysts

US NFP is the primary catalyst for intraday and near-term moves in EUR/USD. A stronger-than-expected payrolls print would likely accelerate dollar demand and push the pair below technical supports. Fed commentary remains an important input: dovish signals can ease rate expectations and weigh on the dollar, while hawkish surprises would reinforce USD strength. For a similar DXY-driven setup, see DXY clears 200‑day SMA.

Recent datapoints

  • New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing index showed improvement, supporting risk-sensitive flows.
  • Fed comments mixed: Jeffers slightly dovish; Waller favors continued easing in December, which the market will parse alongside NFP data.

Technical analysis

Price action is approaching the 50-day simple moving average at 1.1581. The RSI is turning lower, suggesting momentum is shifting to the downside. Key levels to watch:

  • Resistance: 1.1600 and the 50-day SMA near 1.1581.
  • Immediate support: 1.1550 — a clear breach targets 1.1500 on short-term charts.

Given the current setup, traders can consider sell-on-rally opportunities with tight risk management unless the pair reclaims 1.1600 decisively.

Trade ideas and setups

Intraday / event-driven setup (short-biased)

  • Setup: Wait for a pullback toward 1.1580–1.1600 (resistance zone) ahead of or after the NFP print.
  • Entry: Short on weakness around resistance or on confirmation of bearish momentum after the release.
  • Targets: 1.1550 first, then 1.1500 if 1.1550 is broken.
  • Stop: Above the 50-day SMA and 1.1620–1.1650 depending on risk tolerance.

Swing traders

Monitor weekly structure — a sustained break below 1.1500 would increase the odds of a deeper correction. Use position sizing that accounts for potential whipsaws around high-volatility windows (NFP, Fed speeches).

Risk management

Volatility risk is elevated around US payrolls and Fed commentary. Stronger-than-expected NFP prints can produce rapid downside moves and slippage; conversely, disappointing jobs data could briefly weaken the dollar, prompting sharp reversals. Keep stops in place, reduce position size into releases, and consider using limit and OCO orders to manage execution during fast moves.

Practical tools for execution

Retail traders can benefit from automated rules to manage fast, event-driven setups. Tools such as a Trade Assistant help implement pre-defined intraday exit and entry rules around economic releases. For those focused on currency pairs, a dedicated Forex Trading Bot can run sell-on-rally strategies automatically and enforce disciplined risk limits.

Broader market implications

USD strength often pressures risk assets. For crypto trading, an abrupt USD bid or risk-off reaction to NFP could increase volatility in major cryptocurrencies; traders should be prepared for cross-asset correlation shifts. Automated trading and disciplined position sizing can help preserve capital during such episodes.

Summary and outlook

EUR/USD is short-term bearish with immediate resistance at 1.1600 and the 50-day SMA near 1.1581. A decisive breach of 1.1550 would open the path to 1.1500. The US NFP print and Fed commentary are the primary near-term catalysts — stronger payrolls favor deeper USD gains, while dovish surprises could produce short-covering.

Conclusion

Traders should favour sell-on-rally opportunities while managing event risk around NFP and Fed speakers. Use tight stops, conservative sizing, and consider automated trading to enforce discipline during high-volatility windows. PlayOnBit offers solutions that fit these needs — from the Forex Trading Bot for currency strategies to the Trade Assistant for execution rules — helping traders implement consistent strategies in forex trading, crypto trading, and other markets using an AI trading bot and automated trading workflows.

Try the AI trading bot at PlayOnBit to test event-driven setups, automate risk management, and run disciplined strategies across forex and crypto markets.