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EUR/USD Faces Fresh Downside Pressure Ahead of the FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD is starting the session with a bearish tone as markets continue to reprice the U.S. interest-rate outlook and the dollar holds firm into the Federal Reserve’s April FOMC Minutes. ING says downside risks remain skewed to the euro, with 1.1570 now the key support to watch.

Market chart and macro headlines for EURUSD this week

The pair has already broken below 1.160 in early March, and the latest read from the market suggests the macro backdrop has become less supportive for the euro. At the same time, positioning is described as more balanced, which may reduce the chance of a sudden technical sell-off, but it does not remove the broader downside risk.

For background on the policy event driving the move, see FOMC decisions and how they affect currency pricing.

Why Traders Are Focused on 1.1570

ING highlights 1.1570 as the next important support. A clean break below that level could open the door to further weakness in EUR/USD, especially if positive Middle East headlines fail to improve risk sentiment enough to ease demand for the U.S. dollar.

The euro also faces a less favorable rates backdrop. The 2-year EUR:USD swap spread has widened to around -100bp from -65bp in early April, a signal that relative policy expectations are moving against the single currency. For more on the pricing mechanics behind this move, review swap spreads.

What Could Stabilize the Pair

There are still some offsetting factors. Balanced positioning may help slow the pace of any move lower, and a sustained improvement in euro area data or broader risk sentiment could soften the dollar’s advantage. But for now, those are only potential cushions rather than clear catalysts.

That means the near-term direction may depend heavily on the FOMC Minutes and whether they reinforce the view that the Fed is comfortable removing its easing bias. TD Securities expects the minutes to show hawkish momentum, and recent CPI and payrolls data have already supported that view. Read more about inflation surprises in CPI surprise moves and USD pairs.

Related coverage also shows how hawkish Fed repricing has been weighing on the euro in recent sessions.

Fed Minutes May Keep the Dollar in Control

The upcoming FOMC Minutes are the main event for USD traders, and they could matter not only for EUR/USD but also for gold, Treasury yields, and broader forex trading flows. If the minutes lean hawkish, the dollar could extend its recent strength and keep pressure on EUR/USD around support.

For traders using a forex trading bot or other automated trading tools, this is the kind of event-driven setup that often requires tighter risk management. Volatility can rise quickly when markets are heavily positioned around a policy surprise.

US growth updates can also shape the dollar outlook, so traders may want to monitor US growth signals alongside the Fed minutes.

Market Outlook

For now, the short-term bias remains bearish while EUR/USD stays below the 1.160 area and traders wait for confirmation from the Fed. A move through 1.1570 would likely reinforce downside momentum, while a stronger euro would probably need help from either better euro area sentiment or a softer-than-expected Fed signal.

In practical terms, the pair is being driven less by euro optimism and more by U.S. rate expectations and macro divergence. That keeps the focus squarely on the dollar unless the ECB side of the story improves meaningfully.

If risk appetite improves, the broader market backdrop could still help the euro, as seen in prior moves tied to oil surge impact and safe-haven flows.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD remains vulnerable ahead of the FOMC Minutes, with ING flagging 1.1570 as the key level that could determine whether the pair extends lower. Unless the Fed surprises on the dovish side or risk sentiment improves decisively, the dollar likely stays in control.