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November 26, 2025

EUR/USD Dips After Stronger-Than-Expected Jobless Claims; Bitcoin Vulnerable to USD Strength

Market snapshot

US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 216,000 (consensus 225,000) while the 4-week moving average slid to 223,750. Continuing insured claims rose by 7,000 to 1.96 million. The USD Index traded marginally higher around 99.83 on the print, echoing themes seen when the dollar strengthens. These mixed labour-market datapoints have produced a short-term bullish reaction in the dollar, with immediate implications for forex and crypto traders.

What moved markets

Why the dollar reacted

The lower-than-expected initial claims signal continued resilience in the US labour market, which can be interpreted as a reduced near-term incentive for faster Fed easing. That boosted short-term USD flows against majors. At the same time, the rise in continuing claims is a cautionary note — weekly series are noisy and revisions could reverse the initial move. Traders should treat today’s USD strength as tactical rather than structural until a clearer trend in claims and payrolls emerges.

Macro backdrop to watch

Markets remain sensitive to Fed policy expectations: recent pricing still implies significant odds of rate moves later this cycle, and any change in Fed communications or incoming data (payrolls, CPI, durable goods) could quickly flip sentiment. Recent FOMC minutes are an example of how Fed-driven volatility can reshape EUR/USD and Bitcoin moves. For active traders, that means watching both headline prints and the continuing-claims series for confirmation.

EUR/USD — tactical outlook

Immediate impact: a firmer dollar pushed EUR/USD lower during the session as short-term USD demand increased. Given the jobs print and ongoing Fed-watch, the path of least resistance in the near term favors USD-strength trades versus the euro unless European data or ECB commentary offset the move.

Trading considerations

  • Bias: short-term bias toward USD strength vs EUR. Consider selective short entries on rallies rather than aggressive trend-chasing.
  • Risk: the increase in continuing claims and the heavily priced-in Fed expectations create two-way risk — a string of softer US data or dovish Fed signals would reverse the move.
  • Execution: use defined stops above recent swing highs and scale position size to volatility. Traders using automated strategies should ensure their risk limits and stop logic reflect the current elevated event risk.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — downside risk if USD holds gains

Risk assets tend to suffer when the dollar strengthens on hawkish repricing or resilient US data. While the jobs print was mixed, the initial dollar reaction increases the probability of short-term pressure on BTCUSD. Crypto traders should be cautious: stronger USD flows can depress liquidity and amplify downside moves in spot and derivatives markets.

How traders can respond

  • Positioning: consider reducing directional long exposure or hedging existing BTC long positions during confirmed USD strength.
  • Volatility management: monitor futures open interest and funding rates for signs of derivative stress; widening negative funding can accelerate liquidations.
  • Tactical entries: if you prefer to buy dips, wait for consolidation or confirmation of USD weakness (e.g., soft US macro prints or reduced Fed cut uncertainty) before increasing outright long exposure.

Practical trade ideas & risk management

Forex trade idea

Short EUR/USD on intraday rallies with a stop above the recent swing high; target near prior intraday support levels. Use tight size control and avoid holding through major US macro releases unless you have a robust automated trading rule set.

Crypto trade idea

Trim BTC long exposure and consider a short or hedge via options/futures when USD shows sustained strength. If using automated systems, make sure funding-rate monitoring and liquidation protection are enabled.

Tools for execution

Retail traders can improve execution and discipline by combining manual analysis with automated trading tools. For forex-focused strategies, the forex trading bot can run pre-defined risk rules and manage position sizing. Crypto traders who want strict execution and hedge automation can explore the bitcoin trading bot or use the trade assistant for multi-market monitoring.

Key risk checks before entering trades

  • Monitor the continuing-claims series for confirmation that the labour market is cooling or holding up.
  • Watch Fed communication and pricing around the December meeting — policy expectations remain a primary driver of USD direction.
  • Be aware of liquidity windows and derivative metrics in crypto markets to avoid outsized slippage or liquidation risk.

Conclusion

Today's better-than-expected initial jobless claims gave the dollar a tactical lift and increased the near-term risk of downside in EUR/USD and BTCUSD if USD strength persists. The signal is actionable for traders who combine event-aware position sizing with disciplined risk controls. Integrating automated trading capabilities—like those available at PlayOnBit—can help enforce stops, hedge exposure, and react faster to volatile moves.