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October 30, 2025

EUR/JPY Climbs After BoJ Keeps Rates Steady; German GDP and Trump–Xi Meeting in Focus

Overview

EUR/JPY strengthened to around 177.50 after the Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate target unchanged (reported in October at roughly 0.4%–0.5% / 0.5% in different releases), a decision that continues to weigh on the yen. Markets are pricing reduced safe-haven demand as optimism around a potential US–China trade meeting in Busan (Trump–Xi) supports risk currencies. For recent context on how BoJ signals move the pair see EUR/JPY slides after BoJ. Traders should watch two high-volatility events today: German GDP prints and the Trump–Xi meeting.

What moved the market

BoJ policy stance

The BoJ's decision to leave rates unchanged with a split vote (7–2 in one report) reinforces a relatively dovish profile versus other major central banks. That divergence keeps downside pressure on JPY and fuels cross-rate gains in pairs such as EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY.

Risk sentiment and geopolitics

Improved sentiment from expectations of progress in US–China talks has reduced demand for safe-haven currencies. If the Busan meeting produces positive headlines, JPY weakness could extend further. Conversely, any disappointment would likely trigger a rapid yen rally and weigh on EUR/JPY.

Scheduled macro — German GDP

German Q3 GDP (QoQ and YoY) prints are due at 09:00 UTC and carry high volatility. A stronger-than-expected reading would add support to EUR and validate recent EUR/JPY gains; a weaker print could reverse the move quickly. See related coverage on how German data can sway the euro: German industrial slump.

Technical and trade ideas

Key levels

Current technical reference for EUR/JPY: immediate support near 176.00–176.50, short-term resistance 178.50–179.50. A clean daily close above 179.50 would open the 181.00–182.50 area; failure below 175.50 risks a deeper pullback toward 173.00.

Short-term setups

1) Momentum long: consider long EUR/JPY above 177.00 with a tight stop below 175.50 and initial targets 179.50–181.00, managing position size around event risk. 2) Range fade: if price stalls near 179.50 and German data disappoints, a short with stop above 181.00 and target back to 176.00 can be considered.

Risk management

Event-driven moves can be swift. Use defined stops, scale into positions, and be ready to reduce exposure ahead of the 12:00 UTC Trump–Xi meeting if geopolitical headlines turn volatile. Correlation monitors show AUD/JPY and USD/JPY often amplify JPY moves — watch cross-confirmation before adding size.

How traders can execute and monitor

Retail and active traders can benefit from automated tools that watch events and manage execution. For forex-focused strategies consider a dedicated Forex Trading Bot or the Trade Assistant Bot to automate alerts, scaling and stop management around scheduled macro prints and geopolitical headlines.

Broader market implications

Persistent BoJ dovishness combined with risk-on news may lift other risk assets. Crypto trading and risk-on flows can sometimes move in tandem with Asian and European FX risk crosses; traders who monitor cross-market correlations can better position themselves for spillover effects. For drivers that lift the euro and influence EUR/JPY, see EUR/USD strength drivers.

Risks to the thesis

  • Disappointing outcome from the Trump–Xi meeting would likely revive safe-haven flows into JPY and reverse EUR/JPY gains.
  • Weaker-than-expected German GDP would undermine EUR momentum.
  • Any unexpected BoJ signaling toward tightening or intervention talk would strengthen JPY and negate the current setup.

Conclusion

EUR/JPY's recent push higher is grounded in a still-dovish BoJ and an improved risk backdrop ahead of key events. Traders should treat today as high-probability / high-volatility: plan entries with strict stops, monitor German GDP at 09:00 UTC and the Trump–Xi meeting at 12:00 UTC, and watch correlated JPY crosses for confirmation.

If you want to test disciplined, event-aware execution, consider using an AI trading bot to monitor levels, manage stops and scale positions automatically. PlayOnBit offers tools for both forex trading and broader automated trading workflows — try the Trade Assistant Bot or explore the Forex Trading Bot to implement the setups above.

For traders also active in crypto trading, automated strategies can help capture risk-on spillovers into digital assets — learn more at PlayOnBit.

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