Ethereum Slides on Spot ETF Outflows and Falling Activity; Bitcoin Tests $85,569 Support

Market snapshot

Crypto markets are showing increased short‑term stress. Ethereum (ETH) recorded a third straight day of spot ETF outflows totaling about $225 million and saw weekly active addresses fall from 440k to 324k. ETH failed to close above the 50‑day EMA (~$3,249) and plunged roughly 11% to trade under $2,946; daily momentum indicators (RSI ~41, bearish MACD crossover) point lower with key support near $2,749. Bitcoin (BTC) is also vulnerable: daily RSI around 40 and a converging MACD suggest momentum could accelerate if price closes below the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $85,569 — a breakdown there could open a slide toward $80,000.

Why this matters

The combination of ETF outflows, declining on‑chain activity and negative US exchange premium (Coinbase premium turned negative) indicates US‑side selling pressure for ETH. Reduced liquidity and sharp intraday moves raise stop‑run and liquidation risk for leveraged positions; recent 24‑hour liquidations across crypto exceeded $100 million. For BTC, a breach of a structurally important daily support is likely to trigger technical traders and algorithmic short flows, amplifying downside.

Technical levels to watch

Ethereum (ETH)

Immediate support: $2,850 (recent bounce) and $2,749 (next key support). Resistance/offsets: 50‑day EMA near $3,249 and a short‑term recovery target at $3,100; a decisive move above $3,100 exposes $3,470. Stochastic readings are oversold — a short‑term relief rally to $3,100 is plausible if selling pressure eases.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Critical level: daily close below $85,569 (78.6% Fib) would raise probability of a move toward $80,000. On the upside, a convincing recovery would target the 61.8% retracement zone (traders should monitor daily RSI and MACD for reversal signals).

Trading playbook — what retail traders can consider

Short setup: wait for confirmation — a clean daily close below the named supports (ETH below $2,749; BTC below $85,569) with increased volume. Target the next stated supports and use tight, sensible stops above recent resistance or moving averages to limit tail risk. Avoid oversized leverage given low‑liquidity conditions and elevated liquidation risk.

Mean‑reversion / long setup: only consider after clear signs of stabilization — e.g., ETH reclaiming the 50‑day EMA ($3,249) or BTC closing back above $85,569 with momentum divergence showing a bullish MACD cross and improving RSI. Short relief rallies may offer scalping opportunities toward $3,100 on ETH.

Risk management: reduce position size, set time‑based trailing stops to avoid stop hunts in thin markets, and prefer limit entries over market orders during volatility. Monitor ETF flows, Coinbase premium, and on‑chain metrics for directional confirmation.

How automation can help

Volatile environments with fast, technical breaks are where automated trading and disciplined execution provide an edge. An AI trading bot can monitor key price levels, execute pre‑defined entries and exits, and enforce risk parameters without emotion. Retail crypto traders can use automated strategies for both breakout shorts and mean‑reversion scalps, while forex traders may adapt similar rules for currency pairs exposed to commodity or central‑bank moves.

If you trade on centralized exchanges, consider bots that support exchange APIs and conditional orders to limit slippage. PlayOnBit offers tools that can implement these approaches: the Trade Assistant Bot for multi‑strategy management and the Binance Trading Bot for execution on major crypto venues. Bitcoin‑focused traders can also explore the Bitcoin Trading Bot for tailored BTC strategies.

Practical checklist before taking a trade

Confirm the setup: wait for a daily close beyond the support/resistance level. Check liquidity and orderbook depth. Size positions based on account equity and maximum tolerable drawdown. Use stop orders and avoid cross‑margin with high leverage. Track ETF flow updates and Coinbase premium for US‑driven pressure on ETH.

Conclusion

Short‑term sentiment is bearish for ETH and vulnerable for BTC as technical momentum and fundamental outflows increase downside risk. Traders should prepare for both breakdowns and disciplined mean‑reversion bounces, applying strict risk controls. Automated trading and algorithmic execution can help enforce discipline and react faster to confirmed signals — useful whether you focus on crypto trading or forex trading strategies. Visit PlayOnBit to test automated strategies and try the platform's AI‑driven tools. Try the AI trading bot on PlayOnBit today to backtest setups, automate execution, and manage risk more consistently.