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November 10, 2025

Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance as US Government Reopening Boosts Risk Appetite

Market snapshot: political clarity sparks risk-on flows

The US Senate advanced a stopgap bill to reopen the government and fund it through January, removing a major source of macro uncertainty; see coverage of the funding vote. That development has pushed risk assets higher: European equities are broadly up, US futures point to a strong open, and pre-market tech names are showing gains. Markets are pricing roughly a 65% chance of a December Fed rate cut, which further supports speculative flows into crypto and growth-sensitive FX pairs.

Why this matters for crypto and FX

Government funding clarity tends to reduce headline volatility and unlock delayed data releases (jobs, CPI), which can restore directional flows into risk assets. For crypto traders, that has translated into renewed buying pressure: Bitcoin is trading marginally above $106,000 with an uptrending daily RSI (~45), while Ethereum sits above $3,600 and ETH futures open interest rose to ~$41bn—an indicator of stabilizing retail and institutional demand. Prior reports on Fed-cut odds boost and broader USD weakness illustrate how macro shifts can quickly feed crypto flows.

Bitcoin technical picture

Key signals to watch for BTCUSD:

Near-term levels

  • Immediate support: $102,000–$104,000 (near short-term VWAP and recent swing lows).
  • Near-term resistance: the 200‑day EMA at roughly $108,028 — a clean technical pivot that has capped rallies in prior months.

Momentum and risk

Daily RSI near 45 suggests momentum is recovering but not overbought; that leaves room for continuation if macro tailwinds persist. However, failure to clear the 200‑day EMA would leave BTC vulnerable to a pullback to the $95k–$100k area, especially if delayed data prints (strong jobs or CPI) reduce Fed cut odds.

FX angle: AUD/USD benefit from hawkish RBA comments

On the FX front, RBA Governor Chris Hauser signalled a restrictive stance and Australian Q3 inflation surprised to the upside (1.3% QoQ), sending AUD/USD toward ~0.6530. With the US stopgap funding bill in place and the DXY trading flat around 99.6, AUD strength looks favored in the mid term, but traders should monitor DXY and US data for rapid reversals.

Trade scenarios and ideas

Below are pragmatic scenarios for short-term traders and swing participants. Always size positions to risk and use stop orders where appropriate.

Bitcoin (short-term)

  • Bull case: a close above $108,500 confirms a breakout of the 200‑day EMA and opens targets toward $115k and the prior cycle highs. Consider scaling into long exposure on a confirmed breakout or momentum continuation.
  • Bear case: rejection at the 200‑day EMA with a failure to sustain >$106k could signal a retracement to $100k or lower; traders may prefer short or neutral risk management until a clear range resolves.

AUD/USD (mid-term)

  • Bull case: maintain trend-following longs on dips toward 0.6450–0.6480 with stops below recent support if RBA stays hawkish and DXY remains subdued.
  • Bear case: USD strength or a surprising deterioration in risk appetite would pressure AUD back toward 0.6350; consider hedges or tighter stops around key levels.

Risk factors to monitor

  • Delayed US economic releases (jobs, CPI) once published could materially shift Fed cut expectations and reverse the current rally.
  • Upcoming big-tech earnings (notably NVIDIA next week) may validate or weaken the AI/computing demand narrative; a miss could spill into both equities and crypto.
  • Crypto-specific risks include security incidents, sudden deleveraging in futures, and failure to clear technical resistance levels.

How traders can approach execution

Retail traders looking to manage multiple markets and timeframes can consider combining manual analysis with automated rules for execution and risk management. Tools like a Trade Assistant can help monitor price alerts and manage trailing stops across crypto and FX. For traders focused on spot and derivatives execution, a dedicated Bitcoin Trading Bot or a Forex Trading Bot can automate entry/exit logic and enforce consistent position sizing.

Conclusion

Political clarity from the US Senate and a supportive risk environment have given Bitcoin and commodity/FX-linked currencies like AUD room to breathe. BTC testing the 200‑day EMA near $108k is the immediate focus—clearance would validate the short-term bounce, while rejection raises downside risk. Traders should size positions carefully, monitor incoming US economic data and big-tech earnings, and use disciplined risk controls.

If you want to test automated approaches that combine technical triggers with risk rules, try an AI trading bot on PlayOnBit. Whether you’re active in crypto trading or forex trading, the right mix of automated trading and human oversight can help execute strategies consistently—start with a demo or low-risk plan to evaluate performance.

Ready to put rules to work? Explore automated options and get started with an AI trading bot at PlayOnBit today.