Bitcoin Tests $80K–$87K Support After Large ETF Outflows and Derivatives Skew

Market snapshot — renewed weakness in BTC and spillover to ETH

Bitcoin has come under pressure this week, sliding more than 8% over six trading days with an intraday low near $87,895 and the broader crypto market cap dipping below $3 trillion. The decline pulled BTC below its 50‑day moving average and saw a stalled recovery near the 61.8% retracement of the autumn decline. Ether also softened, trading below $3,000 (~$2,900) as risk‑on flows paused.

Key data points

- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded large outflows (roughly $483M and $395M on two recent sessions), the largest negative flows since early January.

- Deribit options imply roughly a ~30% probability BTC trades below $80K by end‑June and ~19% probability it exceeds $120K in the same window.

- Corporate accumulation remains visible: MicroStrategy added ~22,305 BTC (~$2.12bn) in mid‑January and now holds ~709,715 BTC; Bitmine increased ETH reserves by ~35,268 ETH (total reserves >4.2M ETH).

Technical picture — levels to watch

Immediate support and resistance

Immediate support sits near $87,787 with a lower consolidation boundary around $85,569 (the 78.6% Fibonacci). Medium‑term support is in the $80–84K band; a break below that zone would raise the probability of a deeper corrective target range near $58–62K cited by several analysts if selling accelerates.

Momentum and structure

BTC moving below the 50‑day MA and failure to sustain rallies through the 61.8% retracement are technical negatives that increase the risk of further selling. Watch the daily MACD and RSI for early signs of momentum exhaustion and monitor futures open interest and funding rates for evidence of capitulation or new buying.

Derivatives and flows — skew matters

Options probabilities from Deribit indicate a meaningful chance of a retest of $80K by mid‑year, which implies elevated put demand and skew. Large ETF outflows this week confirm weakening institutional flows and help explain the acceleration of intraday selling. Traders should combine options‑market signals with on‑chain and exchange flows when sizing positions.

Macro backdrop and headline risks

Geopolitical tensions, a repricing in global bond markets and episodic headline risk (including comments at Davos) are contributing to risk‑off flows. These macro drivers have supported gold’s rally but pressured risk assets, including BTC and ETH. Continued negative headlines could deepen outflows and reduce liquidity, increasing volatility.

Trading considerations and tactical setups

Short‑term strategies

- If BTC holds the $85–88K area, consider staggered, small‑size buy entries with tight stops and scale‑in plans — volatility is elevated so size appropriately.

- Use options or structured entries (puts/put spreads or collars) to define risk if targeting a retest of $80–87K; the options skew suggests protective hedges may be costly but useful.

Medium‑term view

- Corporate accumulation (MicroStrategy, miners adding ETH) provides a potential structural support node; if macro headlines moderate, concentration of long holdings could underpin a recovery.

Execution and risk management

Given rapid intraday swings, disciplined execution and automated risk controls matter. Many active traders use algorithmic setups and Trade Assistant Bot flows to manage scaling and stop placement. For Bitcoin‑specific execution, consider tools such as the Bitcoin Trading Bot to automate entries, exits and dollar‑cost averaging when volatility spikes.

Implications for ETH

Ether’s weakness below $3,000 mirrors BTC’s momentum loss but institutional accumulation by players like Bitmine (adding ~35,268 ETH) indicates pockets of demand. For ETH traders, monitor ETH/BTC correlation, futures OI and on‑chain inflows to exchanges; a clear directional break in BTC will likely determine ETH’s next directional move.

Checklist for traders

- Monitor ETF flows and futures open interest daily.

- Watch $80–87K as the primary support band for BTC; a confirmed breakdown would widen risk.

- Use defined‑risk option structures or small, staged positions to manage drawdowns.

- Integrate macro headlines (Davos, bond market moves) into position sizing and horizon decisions.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's slide below the 50‑day MA, large ETF outflows and bearish options skew increase the chance of a retest of the $80–87K support zone. That downside is balanced by ongoing corporate accumulation, which may provide medium‑term support if macro headlines stabilise. Traders should combine technical levels, derivatives signals and flow data when planning entries, and use automated execution tools to manage volatility.

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