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October 31, 2025

Bitcoin Slips Below $109,000; Ether Under Pressure Ahead of Fusaka Mainnet

Market snapshot — rapid crypto pullback

Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $109,000 after a ~5% intraday decline, with daily technicals showing RSI near 43 and a fading MACD histogram. Key daily support sits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $106,453; a decisive break could open a move toward the October 10 low near ~$102,000. Ether (ETH) displayed parallel weakness: recent on‑chain flows recorded approximately $220.8M in liquidations over 24 hours (predominantly longs), as covered in BTC and ETH liquidations, and ETH briefly dipped under $3,700 after rejection at the 100‑day EMA and stabilized near $3,800.

Why this matters now

These moves compress near‑term risk appetite for crypto and raise the odds of volatility spikes and stop‑runs. Technical deterioration across BTC and ETH (RSI below neutral, converging MACD, shrinking histogram) increases the probability of continuation if support levels fail. At the same time, on‑chain and structural developments — notably the Fusaka upgrade for Ethereum (mainnet launch set for December 3 with 12 EIPs, including EIP‑7594 PeerDAS) — provide a medium‑term catalyst that could support recovery if upgrade execution proceeds smoothly (see ETH staking flows).

Key technical levels to monitor

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

  • Immediate resistance / mean‑reversion target: 50‑day EMA ~ $112,872.
  • Critical support: 61.8% Fibonacci at $106,453 — close below this level risks a move to the October low near ~$102,000.
  • Momentum: daily RSI ~43; watch MACD and daily close relative to $106.5k for directional conviction.

Ether (ETHUSD)

  • Short‑term resistance: 100‑day EMA (recent rejection), then $4,270 and the descending trendline.
  • Support: $3,600 area (near 200‑day EMA); failure here raises the risk of larger retracement.
  • Catalysts: Fusaka mainnet Dec 3 and scheduled blob capacity increases on Dec 9 and Jan 7 could be medium-term bullish if rollout is smooth.

Trading playbook — scenarios and tactical ideas

Use these scenarios to shape position sizing and risk management:

Bear case (continuation)

  • Trigger: clean daily close below BTC $106,453 and ETH below $3,600.
  • Target: BTC toward ~$102,000; ETH toward the $3,200–3,400 zone depending on momentum.
  • Tactics: consider tactical short/continuation trades with tight stops, smaller sizes, and clearly defined liquidation buffers to avoid stop‑run risk.

Bull case (support holds)

  • Trigger: sustained holds of BTC $106.5k and ETH $3,600 with reclaim of 50‑day EMA levels.
  • Target: mean‑reversion to BTC ~$112,800 and ETH toward $4,089 (50‑day EMA) and ultimately test $4,270 resistance.
  • Tactics: layered long/mean‑reversion entries on confirmed intraday support with stops just below the key support bands.

Risk management and macro considerations

Upcoming US data (Employment Cost Index) and general USD risk sentiment can amplify cross‑market flows into or out of crypto. Elevated recent liquidations (~$220.8M) highlight short‑term liquidation risk — position sizing and volatility‑aware stops are essential. Monitor ETF flows and large positions for amplification risk (see ETF outflows and shorts). Traders who also operate in FX or commodities should note that dollar strength or weakness can quickly shift crypto directional bias; for example, stronger USD often correlates with additional downside pressure on risk assets.

How automation can help

Given fast‑moving price action and high liquidation risk, disciplined execution and dynamic risk controls matter. Automated trading and systematic strategies can enforce pre‑defined entry/exit rules, scale positions, and manage stop levels without emotion. Retail traders exploring automation can trial tools that provide signal management and execution; for example, the Trade Assistant Bot can help implement layered entries and risk rules, while a dedicated Bitcoin Trading Bot can execute BTC‑specific strategies across exchanges.

Practical checklist for traders

  • Confirm daily closes relative to the key supports: BTC $106,453 and ETH $3,600.
  • Use smaller sizes and wider stops during elevated liquidation environments.
  • Monitor Fusaka execution notes and on‑chain flows for ETH; upgrades can create fast, asymmetric reactions.
  • Consider automated trading or bots for consistent order management during volatile sessions, and review correlation risk with forex trading exposures.

Conclusion

Short‑term sentiment across BTC and ETH is bearish, with critical support levels that will likely determine the next directional leg. Traders should prepare for increased volatility, manage risk tightly, and watch both technical triggers and upgrade execution on Ethereum. For disciplined execution, consider automation and strategy tools such as the Trade Assistant Bot or a Bitcoin Trading Bot to help enforce rules and reduce emotional execution errors.