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November 7, 2025

Bitcoin Slides Below $101,000 as Long‑Term Holder Distribution Accelerates

Market snapshot

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) dropped more than 8% this week, trading below $101,000 and printing a weekly low near $98,944 — the weakest since June 23. Key on‑chain and institutional signals point to accelerated distribution: activated supply (coins last active 60 days) rose by roughly 319,626 BTC over the past month, and spot BTC ETFs recorded aggregate net outflows of about $661.22m for the week (second consecutive week of net redemptions). See the recent coverage on Bitcoin below $97k for related flow detail.

Why this matters now

Long‑term holder selling and ETF outflows increase available liquidity into a market that was extended after recent gains. At the same time BTC has closed below the 365‑day moving average (~$102,000), weekly momentum (RSI  44) has turned tepid and the weekly MACD is bearish — technical and flow signals that can sustain near‑term downside unless buyers step in around established support zones.

Technical picture

Important technical levels to watch:

  • Immediate resistance: 365‑day MA  $102,000, short‑term range back toward $106,400 if buyers return.
  • Near support: daily support  $97,460 and recent weekly low  $98,944.
  • Structural support: 100‑week EMA  $85,213 and traders' minimum band near ~$72,000 if distribution accelerates.
  • Fib guidance: 50% retrace level  $100,353 D a key battleground; daily RSI near ~34 signals short‑term oversold conditions if tests hold.

Short‑term bias

Flow and momentum currently favor the bears in the short term. A confirmed close back above the 365‑day MA would reduce downside risk and open a path for a relief rally. Conversely, a decisive daily close below the $97.5k area would raise the risk of a deeper correction toward the 100‑week EMA.

On‑chain and institutional flows

Activated supply jumping by ~319k BTC suggests long holders that had been dormant are now selling into strength or liquidity needs. Combined with ETF outflows, this creates two pressure channels: direct selling into spot markets and reduced institutional marginal demand. For contrast with periods of heavy institutional demand, see our note on spot ETF inflows. Macro events D including heightened US political uncertainty and growth concerns D can amplify risk aversion and extend selling.

Macro context and risk triggers

Broader macro risks amplify the crypto move: ongoing US fiscal uncertainty and concerns around Q4 GDP growth can reduce risk appetite. If risk‑off momentum intensifies, BTC may be more vulnerable to follow‑through selling. Conversely, if headlines stabilize and ETF flows reverse, historical seasonality (November has been one of Bitcoin9s strongest months) could catalyze a resilient rebound.

Practical trade ideas

Below are tactical approaches aligned with the current setup D not investment advice, but a framework traders can adapt to their timeframe and risk tolerance:

Defensive / mean‑reversion

  • Consider small, staggered long entries if $97.5k 6$99.5k holds, targeting an initial bounce to $106k 6$108k with tight stops below $95k.
  • Use a scale‑in plan rather than all‑in entries; daily RSI near 34 suggests short‑term oversold conditions but distribution risk remains.

Trend‑following / momentum

  • Short a confirmed breakdown under $97.5k with targets near the 100‑week EMA (~$85k) and incremental risk management (trail stops tight on short rallies).
  • Alternatively, wait for a clean break and close back above the 365‑day MA (~$102k) to resume long momentum plays toward $106k 6$115k.

Options and hedged strategies

  • Use options to define risk: buy protective puts if holding a large spot position or sell premium into rallies for income if expecting range‑bound price action.
  • Consider calendar spreads or verticals to limit capital at risk while keeping upside exposure.

Risk management

Given activated supply and ETF outflows, position sizing is paramount. Use explicit stop levels, define maximum portfolio exposure to crypto, and avoid over‑leverage. If you trade both crypto and forex, diversify sizing rules across instruments D forex trading exposures respond differently to macro and liquidity shocks than crypto positions.

How automation can help

Volatility, fast flow changes and reclaimed technical levels mean execution matters. Automated trading and AI‑assisted systems can help by:

  • Executing scale‑in/scale‑out plans around support/resistance without missing entries or getting stopped out by intraday noise.
  • Running systematic rebalancing or risk overlays across crypto and forex trading portfolios.
  • Monitoring ETF flows, on‑chain metrics and technical triggers to alert or automatically adjust exposure.

PlayOnBit offers tools designed for these use cases D from the Bitcoin Trading Bot to exchange‑specific solutions like the Binance Trading Bot and an execution‑oriented Trade Assistant Bot that can implement scale strategies and risk rules across volatile environments.

Opportunities vs. risks D summary

Opportunities: If the $100k region and $97.5k support hold, the market could rebound toward $106k 6$110k, helped by seasonal flows and selective institutional buying. The daily RSI nearing oversold provides a tactical buying signal for disciplined traders.

Risks: Continued selling from long‑term holders, further ETF outflows, and a macro shock (e.g., weaker US data or renewed risk‑off) could push BTC toward $85k or lower. Traders should manage size, use stops, and consider hedges.

Conclusion

Bitcoin9s move below $101k this week is a clear reminder that institutional flows and on‑chain supply dynamics can rapidly change market structure. Traders should watch $100k 6$102k for technical battles, $97.5k for immediate support, and $85k for deeper structural risk. Whether you prefer discretionary setups, options hedges or systematic execution, combining disciplined risk management with automated trading tools can help navigate the volatility.

If you trade crypto or forex and want to prototype execution or risk rules quickly, try PlayOnBit9s automated solutions D from the Bitcoin Trading Bot to the Binance Trading Bot and the Trade Assistant Bot. Visit PlayOnBit to get started and test an AI trading bot with paper and live strategies today.