Bitcoin Hits Fresh Record as Spot ETF Inflows Surge and Fed Minutes Turn Dovish

Market snapshot

Bitcoin traded near $122,000 after setting a fresh all-time high of $126,199 earlier in the week, supported by spot ETF inflows totaling roughly $440.7M on Wednesday and a pronounced dovish tilt in recent Fed minutes. On-chain data show limited profit-taking and low long-term holder selling, underpinning the rally, while markets await a Fed Chair speech that could reprice rate-cut expectations and lift the US dollar as a risk-off trigger.

Why prices are moving

Three primary drivers explain the move higher: large institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs, softer central bank language from Fed minutes that increases the odds of rate cuts, and an easing of geopolitical risk that has reduced premium for safe-haven assets. Together these factors create a favorable backdrop for risk assets and crypto trading flows.

ETF inflows and institutional adoption

Continued daily inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are converting latent demand into on‑chain and market-buy pressure. The reported $440.73M inflow on Wednesday continued a streak that began Sept. 29, reinforcing the bid under BTC and reducing short-term liquidity on exchanges.

Macro: Fed minutes and the Powell risk

FOMC minutes signaled a dovish bias toward rate cuts later in the year, tilting policy expectations and supporting risk assets. However, the upcoming Powell speech is the near-term catalyst that could either cement the dovish narrative or reverse it — a hawkish surprise would likely strengthen the USD and trigger profit-taking in bitcoin.

Technical outlook

Near-term technical levels to watch: initial support is around 120k support focus — a decisive close below that level could open a slide toward $116,000. On the upside, the recent ATH at $126,199 is the obvious reference for continuation; sustaining above that level would reinforce bullish momentum and attract more momentum-driven flows.

Risks and catalysts

Primary risks include a hawkish or less-dovish-than-expected Fed Chair speech that boosts the dollar and pressures risk assets, a sudden spike in profit-taking that raises realized supply on exchanges, or renewed geopolitical shocks. Conversely, sustained ETF inflows and continued easing expectations would likely keep the path of least resistance to the upside.

Practical trading considerations

Traders should align position sizing and stop placement with elevated volatility. For those looking to trade the setup, consider systematic approaches and risk controls: define scenario-based entries (e.g., buy on breakout above the ATH or scale into pullbacks toward $120k with tight risk limits). Automated trading tools can help enforce discipline during rapid price moves and execute around-the-clock order management.

If you trade crypto markets actively, experiment with a Bitcoin Trading Bot to test objective entry and exit rules. For multi-asset traders who also follow macro-driven FX moves, an integrated Trade Assistant Bot can help monitor cross-market signals and adjust orders when volatility spikes.

Context for forex traders

The dovish Fed narrative that has helped bitcoin may also lift risk currencies and commodity pairs, while a hawkish surprise would strengthen the USD and pressure risk assets. Forex trading strategies should therefore account for correlation shifts between BTC and major FX pairs during macro events.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's fresh record reflects a powerful combination of ETF-driven demand and a softer policy outlook from the Fed minutes, but the next Fed Chair remarks are the immediate risk that could change the trade's dynamics. Traders can benefit from systematic rules and disciplined execution — whether via manual strategies or automated trading — to manage volatile moves and preserve capital.

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