Back
November 13, 2025

AUD/USD Strengthens After Strong Australian Jobs; USD/JPY Near 154.75 as BoJ Outlook Shifts

Market snapshot

Australia’s October labour report surprised to the upside, sending AUD/USD higher into a short-term bullish range. At the same time USD/JPY is trading near 154.75 as markets price out BoJ rate hikes and react to US political developments. This piece reviews the data, technical levels, and practical trade considerations for forex traders and investors deploying automated strategies or manual positions.

Australia jobs print: implications for AUD

What the report showed

October unemployment fell to 4.3% from 4.5% (consensus 4.4%), with Employment Change +42.2K (prior 12.8K, consensus 20K) and Full‑Time Employment +55.3K. Participation was steady at 67%. The strength of the labour market increases the probability that the RBA will be less dovish than previously priced, supporting AUD on a fundamental basis. For context on how central‑bank surprises move AUD, see the RBA hike reaction.

Technical picture: AUD/USD

Price is trading around 0.6560 and consolidating in a rectangular range above the 9‑day EMA, a short-term bullish sign. Key technical levels to watch:

  • Rectangle upper boundary: ~0.6630 (near-term breakout target).
  • Upside extension target: the 13‑month high at 0.6707.
  • Support cluster: 50‑day EMA at ~0.6537 and 9‑day EMA near 0.6531.

Trade considerations

Short-term momentum favors buyers while price holds above the 9‑day/50‑day EMAs. A decisive breakout above 0.6630 would open a path toward 0.6707; conversely, a drop below the EMA support cluster would signal loss of short- and medium-term momentum. Traders using automated trading systems or a Trade Assistant Bot may set breakout entries above 0.6630 with a stop under the 50‑day EMA, or consider mean-reversion entries near the 9‑day EMA with tight risk control.

USD/JPY: BoJ outlook and US funding risks

Macro drivers

USD/JPY is trading near 154.75 — a multi-month high — as markets pare back odds of a December BoJ rate hike and risk-on sentiment supports the dollar. The US House is set to vote on a stopgap funding bill that could end the shutdown and restore funding through Jan 30; passage would likely provide additional USD support. Japanese leadership signals are mixed — see BoJ independence — with Finance Minister Katayama warning he will monitor rapid one-sided FX moves and won't rule out intervention.

Risks and technicals

Key risks include potential Japanese FX intervention, which could abruptly strengthen the yen, and any sudden risk-off move that typically benefits safe-haven JPY. For traders, levels near 154.00–155.00 are important: a sustained move above that zone could attract momentum flows, but the intervention risk argues for careful position sizing and defined stops.

Cross-market and portfolio implications

Stronger AUD and higher USD/JPY demonstrate how regional monetary expectations and domestic data diverge: a resilient Australian labour market supports risk-linked FX like AUD, while Japan’s policy stance and US political developments are creating directional pressure on JPY. Traders with exposure across forex and crypto instruments should be aware that volatile FX backdrops often coincide with rapid shifts in crypto trading flows as risk sentiment changes.

Practical checklist for traders

For discretionary traders

  1. Monitor next RBA commentary for changes in forward guidance.
  2. Watch US House vote timing and headlines for USD moves.
  3. Use tight stops around key EMAs and psychological levels to manage intervention risk.

For systematic and automated trading

Automated trading frameworks benefit from rule-based entries around the levels above — for example, breakout triggers above 0.6630 for AUD/USD or momentum filters for USD/JPY above 154.00 — combined with volatility-adjusted position sizing. Consider integrating a specialized Forex Trading Bot or the Trade Assistant Bot to execute predefined strategies and manage risk automatically.

Conclusion

Strong Australian employment data gives AUD/USD a near-term bullish bias while USD/JPY’s run toward 154.75 reflects a shifting BoJ outlook and US political developments. Both pairs present clear technical levels and event risks that traders should respect. Whether you trade manually or via automated trading systems, disciplined risk management and attention to central bank signals remain essential.

If you want to test automated ideas or improve execution for forex trading and crypto trading strategies, try the Trade Assistant Bot or evaluate the Forex Trading Bot to implement rules-based entries, manage stops, and run backtests so automation handles execution.