AUD/USD Rises After Strong Australian Capex and Sticky CPI; Key Resistance at 0.6545
Market snapshot — why AUD/USD is bid
On 27 November 2025, Australian data surprised to the upside: private capital expenditure rose 6.4% QoQ in Q3 and headline CPI printed 3.8% YoY in October. Together these datapoints reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia’s higher-for-longer bias and reduce near-term odds of policy easing. At the same time, market pricing assigns better than an 84% chance of a 25bp Federal Reserve cut in December, a dovish US backdrop that has softened the USD and provided further tailwind for AUD/USD.
Macro drivers
Strong capex signals domestic growth resilience and supports the AUD both from fundamentals and carry. Sticky inflation makes the RBA less likely to cut, preserving Australia’s relative rate advantage. Conversely, the dovish pivot priced into U.S. rates has pressured the greenback across FX markets, amplifying AUD gains.
Key technical levels
Technical context matters for near-term trade decisions:
Resistance
0.6545 — clearance and hold above this level would open targets at 0.6580 and then 0.6618.
Support
0.6499 — a decisive break below here would bring sellers back and target lower intraday support.
Momentum
4‑hour RSI is around the mid‑60s (~66), which leaves room for further extension but also flags increasing overbought risk if momentum accelerates.
Risks to the bullish thesis
Key risks that could reverse AUD strength include: a Fed delay or abandonment of the expected December cut that strengthens the USD; failure of AUD/USD to clear 0.6545 (keeping the pair range‑bound); or unexpectedly weak Australian releases or a sudden RBA shift toward easing.
Practical trading ideas
Break-and-run (trend) setup
Entry: wait for a clean break-and-close above 0.6545 on a 4‑hour or daily close. Target: 0.6580 first, then 0.6618. Stop: beneath 0.6490–0.6499 depending on risk tolerance. Manage position size to keep max drawdown per trade aligned with your plan.
Range / mean reversion setup
If AUD/USD fails at 0.6545 and shows rejection candles, consider short-on-rally setups with tight stops above the resistance and initial targets near 0.6499 then 0.6450. Thin holiday liquidity (U.S. Thanksgiving week) can produce exaggerated moves — use wider stops or reduce size.
Risk management and execution
Given event and liquidity risks, use stop orders, position sizing, and avoid overleveraging. Consider volatility filters around session opens and major data releases. For traders who want automated rules for entries, exits and risk controls, a tested strategy run on an automated trading platform can reduce emotional errors.
How automated strategies can help
Automated trading and AI-driven execution can enforce discipline — executing predefined break-and-hold rules, scaling in on confirmed momentum, and managing trailing stops. If you prefer a plug-and-play solution for forex markets, consider the Forex Trading Bot or combine macro signals with execution logic via the Trade Assistant. These tools support backtesting and automated live execution, useful for traders who want consistent application of rules in fast-moving FX sessions.
Checklist before taking a trade
- Confirm macro bias — RBA vs. Fed path remains the dominant driver.
- Check liquidity — holiday-thinned markets can produce whipsaws.
- Validate technical confirmation — close above/below key levels on chosen timeframe.
- Define stop, target, and position size before entry.
Conclusion
AUD/USD is showing a bullish short-term setup driven by stronger-than-expected Australian capex and a sticky CPI print that supports a higher-for-longer RBA stance, while dovish Fed pricing weakens the USD. The pivot point to watch is 0.6545 — a sustained break above it would open the next targets, while failure to clear it keeps the pair range-bound with support near 0.6499.
For additional context on RBA-driven momentum and antipodean FX, see AUD/USD near 14-month high and NZD/USD rallies after retail sales. To explore automation options, visit PlayOnBit.