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AUD/USD Extends Gains as the US Dollar Slides

AUD/USD continues to trade with a bullish short-term bias after the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to around 98.90, its lowest level since May 29. The move has supported the Australian Dollar as traders also weigh a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia outlook and a key domestic jobs report due on Thursday.

Market chart and macro headlines for AUD/USD this week

Why the Australian Dollar Is Finding Support

The latest market tone favors the Aussie because the dollar is under pressure while RBA commentary remains relatively firm. Rabobank has said it sees scope for a shallow AUD/USD uptrend, with November RBA rate-hike expectations helping to underpin sentiment. For broader context on the dollar outlook, traders are still focused on incoming US data.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also reinforced that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out if inflation fails to ease or if upside risks materialize. That hawkish bias matters for AUD traders because it keeps the possibility of higher Australian yields in play. Similar policy-sensitive moves can also be seen in RBNZ inflation pressure headlines across Oceania FX markets.

Australia Jobs Report Is the Next Big Test

Australia’s July employment report is due on Thursday, and the market is looking for 15K jobs added with unemployment unchanged at 4.4%. A result stronger than expected could help AUD/USD challenge nearby resistance, while a weaker print would likely invite a pullback as traders reassess the growth outlook.

For now, the broader setup remains constructive, but the pair needs confirmation from data. In forex trading, a single macro release can quickly change the near-term trend, especially when the pair is already sitting near a technical inflection point. The reaction may resemble moves seen after weak U.S. jobs data in other major pairs.

Technical Picture Favors Buyers, but Resistance Is Close

AUD/USD remains above its 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages, which is a positive signal for trend followers. The daily RSI is near 65, showing firm momentum without being deeply stretched, while MACD is slightly positive.

The immediate resistance zone is 0.7150 to 0.7200. A sustained breakout above that area could open the way toward the yearly high near 0.7270. If buyers lose momentum, support is seen near 0.7118, then 0.7065 and 0.7036. Traders tracking related AUD/USD gains may see similar levels come into play.

What Could Weigh on the Pair

Despite the bullish tone, AUD/USD still faces risks from weaker Chinese growth, falling iron ore prices, or a broader risk-off shift in global markets. A softer-than-expected employment report would also likely undermine the current setup.

For traders using automated trading or an AI trading bot, the current environment may suit a cautious approach: bullish bias, but with headline risk from Australian labor data and resistance overhead. If you are monitoring multiple markets at once, a broader trade assistant can help keep the setup in context alongside other currencies and risk assets.

Outlook for Retail Traders

The near-term bias for AUD/USD remains constructive as long as the US Dollar stays soft and Australian policy expectations remain supportive. The upcoming jobs report is likely to be the main catalyst that determines whether the pair can extend toward 0.7200 or retreat back toward support.