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November 28, 2025

AUD/USD Climbs After Australia Inflation Surprise, RBA Rate-Cut Bets Recede

Market snapshot: RBA hawkish tilt lifts AUD/USD

Australian inflation data surprised to the upside, prompting markets to dial back bets on near-term RBA rate cuts. With the cash rate at 3.60% (November) and analysts expecting policy to remain on hold at the December meeting, AUD/USD has moved higher as reduced easing expectations supported the currency.

Key macro drivers

Two drivers are at work: (1) the domestic inflation surprise, which lowered the probability of an imminent RBA easing cycle and is best understood in the context of the Consumer Price Index, and (2) broader dollar dynamics. While the US continues to show mixed upside data, the market still prices a high chance of Fed easing in December — a factor that can keep the USD soft unless incoming US releases shift expectations.

Technical picture: testing a pivotal resistance cluster

AUD/USD is pressing the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel and currently testing a confluence of the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages. Momentum indicators show a MACD bullish crossover and an RSI near 53, consistent with constructive short-term momentum but not yet overbought.

Immediate support: the 21-day SMA (~0.6506) with a deeper downside level at 0.6450. On a decisive breakout above the 50/100-day SMA cluster, traders should watch the November 13 swing high at 0.6580 and the 0.6600 psychological level as the next targets. Conversely, rejection at the SMA cluster would likely reinforce the bearish channel and could trigger a pullback toward 0.6450 or the channel lower boundary. For background on recent RBA commentary that has influenced positioning, see the RBA minutes signal.

Levels to watch

  • Support: 0.6506 (21-day SMA) then 0.6450.
  • Resistance: current SMA cluster (50/100-day), 0.6580 (Nov 13 high), 0.6600 psychological.

Trade ideas and risk management

Short-term traders can consider momentum-based long exposure on a clean breakout and close above the 50/100-day SMA cluster with a stop below the 21-day SMA to limit downside risk. Those looking to fade rallies should watch for bearish confirmation at the SMA cluster or a failure to sustain above 0.6580, with stops placed above the channel upper boundary.

Given the potential for sudden shifts in central bank guidance or dollar strength, keep position sizes controlled and maintain clear stop levels. Use implied rate moves (CME FedWatch) and RBA commentary as check-points for trade validity.

Related cross-market note: USD/CHF under downward pressure

USD/CHF is trading near 0.8050 and under pressure as the CME FedWatch shows roughly an 85% probability of a 25bp Fed cut in December. The SNB is expected to hold policy steady at 0.00% for the foreseeable future, which structurally limits SNB tightening as support for the franc. If Fed easing remains priced in, USD/CHF has room to drift lower — offering short strategies on break-and-hold below 0.8050, provided macro flows and SNB data do not surprise.

Execution tools and automation

Retail traders can benefit from combining discretionary analysis with execution tools. For forex trading, a forex trading bot can help manage entries, exits, and position sizing against predefined risk rules. For multi-asset traders who also participate in crypto markets, automated strategies and the trade assistant can streamline monitoring across pairs and speed execution during volatile RBA or Fed releases.

Conclusion

Australian inflation’s upside surprise has reduced RBA rate-cut odds and given AUD/USD near-term upside potential, especially if the pair can clear the 50/100-day SMA cluster and the descending channel’s upper boundary. Traders should monitor the 0.6506 support, the 0.6450 downside level, and upside targets at 0.6580–0.6600, while remaining prepared for risks from renewed USD strength or any dovish pivot by the RBA.

Whether you’re focused on forex trading or also active in crypto trading, combining technical setups with disciplined risk management is essential. Consider using automated trading tools and an AI-assisted approach to execute your plan more consistently — learn more at PlayOnBit.